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KLMNO ELECTION 2010 Democrats target female voters Party’s core group is undecided and open to embracing Republican candidates BY ANNE E. KORNBLUT I


n the final stretch before the midterms, President Obama is lavishing attention on the traditionalDemocratic base, including young people and


black voters. But it iswomenwho are hismost urgent target. Unlike the other core groups,


women are undecided, rather than merely unmotivated. And there are signs that some women are open to defecting to the Re- publicans, potentially defying the long-standing “gender gap” that has skewedheavily towardDemo- cratic candidates. In the highly competitive Colo-


rado Senate race, women are di- vided almost evenly between Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet and Republican challenger Ken Buck. In Missouri, female voters give nomeasurable boost toDem- ocratic Senate candidate Robin Carnahan, who is trailing Repub- lican Rep. Roy Blunt. And in New Hampshire, Republican Senate candidate and front-runner Kelly Ayotte is ahead amongwomen by 10 percentage points. In House races, in which wom-


en have sided with Democrats by an average of nine points since 1976, they are now about evenly split between Democrats and Re- publicans, according to the latest Washington Post-ABCNews poll. Of course, the news is grimfor


Democrats almost everywhere — and certainlymuchworsewhen it comes towhitemen,who are em- bracingRepublicancandidatesby a greater proportion than ever before. But in a sense, thewomen mattermore:Asawhole,menlean Republican, and women usually act as a firewall forDemocrats.Or at least they did until this year. “Women are not a shrinking


piece of the electorate,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “They’re a shrinking piece of the Democratic pie.” To counteract the trend,Demo-


crats have released a torrent of gender-based negative ads in re- cent weeks — attacking male Re- publican House candidates for bad behavior, underscoring Re- publican candidates’ opposition to legalized abortion and other women’s health issues, and, in the KentuckySenaterace,airinganad that asks, among other things: “Why did Rand Paul once tie a woman up?” The White House is also step-


ping in. On Thursday, Obama will hold


a “backyard event” in Seattle, tar- geting women on economic is- sues,andthencampaignwithSen. Patty Murray (Wash.), who has had an advantage among female voters since first being elected in 1992 as a “mom in tennis shoes.”


Narrowing the gender gap? Female voters have traditionally skewed heavily toward Democratic candidates but are now about evenly split between Democrats and Republicans.


Votes cast for U.S. House candidates 60%


Democratic 50 Republican 1994 40 30 1990 ’92 60% 57% 50% 50 40 30 1990 ’92 ’94 ’96 ’98 ’00 ’02 ’04 ’06 ’08 ’10


SOURCES: Based on national exit polls from 1990 to 2008; 2010 projection from Washington Post-ABC News poll Sept. 30-Oct. 3, 2010.


THE WASHINGTON POST 41% 38% MEN 47% 54% ’94 ’96 ’98 ’00 ’02 ’04 ’06 ’08 ’10


Democrats lose 52 House seats


2006


Republicans lose 30 seats amid strong anti-Bush sentiment


52% 47% WOMEN


Early Oct. 2010 Washington Post-ABC News poll of likely voters


55% 43%


anddemeaning towomen;Demo- crats recently formed a group called Mothers Opposing McMa- hon to capitalize on that. Yet inNewHampshire,Ayotte’s


lead amongwomen, although not as large as her lead among men, bucks historical norms. Andrew Smith, director of the


47% 45%


Survey Center at theUniversity of NewHampshire, creditsSarahPa- lin, who endorsed Ayotte in the primary, with helping shift a de- cades-old dynamic.Where subur- banwomenwere a corepartof the RepublicanParty inthe 1960s and ’70s, they shiftedtotheDemocrat- ic Party in the 1980s and ’90s and havebeenacorepartof theDemo- cratic base ever since then. “Republicans kind of wrote


them off and didn’t really bother to actively recruit women as vot- ers because they figured they would vote Democrat anyway,” Smith said. “What Palin has done is to say that women wouldn’t necessarily vote for a Democrat and might vote for a woman Re- publican.” Recent television advertise-


“Women are not a shrinking piece of the electorate.


They’re a shrinking piece of the Democratic pie.” —Lee Miringoff,


director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. FPO The Fix: Trail Mix CHRIS CILLIZZA ON THEMIDTERMELECTIONS Excerpts from washingtonpost.com/thefix


Who will hold key to Keystone state? Recent polling shows that


Rep. Joe Sestak (D) has pulled into a statistical dead heat with former congressman Pat Toomey (R) in the Senate race in Pennsylvania. Democrats have a major


registration edge in the state, with 1.2 million more registered voters than Republicans. The question is whether Sestak can turn out enough voters from the party’s base to offset the large margins by which Toomey will almost certainly win the central portion of the state, where President Obama and the national Democratic Party are personae non gratae. Republicans acknowledge that


their own data have shown the race tightening, although they insist that Toomey will ultimately pull it out.


TIPPINGMONEY SCALES The DemocraticNational


Committee raised $11.1 million in the first 13 days of October, a figure that puts the organization on track for one of its best fundraising months ever in a midterm election year. The DNC raised $17 million in September, well ahead of the RepublicanNational Committee’s $10 million; the Democrats also had $13.2 million cash on hand at the end of September. The newfigures add to an


already impressive fundraising run for Democratic campaign committees over the past six weeks. The Democratic


Senatorial Campaign Committee took in $15.5 million in September, compared with $8.3 million for theNational Republican Senatorial Committee; the Democrats’ House campaign arm also outraised its GOP counterpart in September, $15.9 million to $11.2 million. The RepublicanGovernors


Association, however, provided some good news for the party— collecting $31 million to the DemocraticGovernors Association’s $10 million from July 1 to Sept. 30.


HUCKABEE BACKS UP PAUL Ophthalmologist Rand Paul


(R) is calling in the big guns in his Senate bid in Kentucky against state AttorneyGeneral Jack Conway (D). This week, Paul’s campaign is blasting out a robocall and radio ad in which former Arkansas governorMike Huckabee criticizes Conway’s controversial newTV ad as “disgusting.” “If there is any good news in


this despicable attempt to smear Rand Paul and his family, it’s that Kentucky won’t have a hard decision as to who it would think best represents them in the United States Senate,” says


Huckabee, a Republican who is an ordained Southern Baptist minister and has a considerable following among social conservatives nationwide. The robocall and radio ad are


the latest volleys in an extended skirmish between Paul and Conway over the ad, which slams the Republican over reports that he belonged to “a secret society that called theHoly Bible a ‘hoax’ ” and that he once tied up a classmate and told her to “bow down before a false idol and say that hisGod was ‘Aqua Buddha.’ ”


MCCAIN-DEMOCRATS


Two weeks before the midterms, Republicans are choosing their battles on mostly friendly turf. TheNational Republican Congressional Committee is spending heavily in districts that Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won in the 2008 presidential election and, often, even more strongly for President GeorgeW. Bush in 2004. Of the 60 Democratic districts


where the NRCC has spread around its $30 million in ad buys, 33 went toMcCain two years ago. Four Democratic-held districts are regarded as so safe for the Republican candidate


6


on washingtonpost.com Looking for more of the Fix?


Get Chris Cillizza’s roundup of political news sent to your inbox, twice daily. Sign up for his Morning Fix and Afternoon Fix.


VStill want more politics? Follow the Fix crew on Twitter: Chris Cillizza (@thefix), Aaron Blake (@fixaaron) and Felicia Sonmez (@fixfelicia).


that the NRCC hasn’t spent any money in them. In all, the party is pursuing 37 of the 48 seats that were won byMcCain and are currently represented in Congress by a Democrat—also known as “McCain-Democrat” seats. In a 38thMcCain-Democrat


district—held by Rep. Heath Shuler (N.C.)—national Democrats just spent for the first time, but Republicans haven’t joined the fray yet. OtherMcCain-Democrat


districts where the NRCC isn’t spending are those held by Reps. Walt Minnick (Idaho), Mike Ross (Ark.), Gabrielle Giffords (Ariz.), Collin C. Peterson (Minn.), Michael E. McMahon (N.Y.), Dan Boren (Okla.), Jason Altmire (Pa.), Tim Holden (Pa.), JimMatheson (Utah) and Nick J. Rahall II (W.Va.).


EIGHTWAS ENOUGH?


The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spent $6.8 million in eight states, according to reports filedWednesday with the Federal Election Commission. The DSCC put its first $912,000 into Senate Majority Leader HarryMReid’s reelection race inNevada and also dropped at least $1 million into the two states—Colorado and Pennsylvania—where it has spent the most money to date. Absent from the spending


spree? The open seat inMissouri, where the committee appears to have pulled out.


Staff writers Aaron Blake and Felicia Sonmez contributed to this report.


Roy Barnes,Georgia’s Democratic gubernatorial nominee, leaves Marietta on a campaign tour. Barnes, who has made education a priority, is traveling by—you guessed it—school bus.


Obama is also sending out senior female members of the adminis- tration, particularly fromhis eco- nomic team, to talk about how women have benefited from his small-business programs, and how they will benefit from a new consumer protection agency and the health-care overhaul. First ladyMichelle Obama’s recent for- ay onto the campaign trail has been aimed atwomen aswell. The influx of Republican fe-


Topic: Politics


Run Date: 10 / 21 /2010 Size: 23p2 x 5.75” Artist: Name


male candidates this year appears to be influencing some races but not others. Historically, female


obamawomen-g.ai PROOF1


6


Why do you think women are leaving Democrats?


Tell us at postpolitics.com.


on washingtonpost.com What’s your take?


votershaveput theirpartisanalle- giances first, backingmembers of their own party rather than of their gender, if the two aren’t aligned. It is still happening today. In


Delaware,RepublicanU.S. Senate candidate Christine O’Donnell is, so far, not luring female voters across the aisle. A recent Time- CNN-Opinion Research poll showedO’Donnelldown27points among women compared with ChrisCoons,hermaleDemocratic opponent. And in Connecticut, Republi-


canSenatenomineeLindaMcMa- hon trails significantly among women in her race againstDemo- crat Richard Blumenthal. A for- mer World Wrestling Entertain- ment executive, McMahon has been criticized for her involve- ment in videos that are violent


ments tell thestoryofaDemocrat- icParty fighting to keepwomenin the fold. In Pennsylvania, Demo- craticSenate candidate JoeSestak is running an ad against Republi- can Pat Toomey highlighting his opposition to abortion rights — and broadcasting, twice, an old clip of him saying, “My voting record’sprettyhardtodistinguish fromRickSantorum’s.”Santorum, the former senator, is shorthand inthestateforhard-lineconserva- tivepositionsonsocial issues such as abortion and birth control. In several House races, Demo-


crats arehittingRepublicans even harder,accusingnineof theYoung Guns recruited by GOP leaders of an “alarming pattern of contempt towardwomen,”asoneDemocrat- ic Congressional Campaign Com- mittee news release put it.Among the targets: Massachusetts Re- publicanJeffPerry,whoseroleasa police officer during two contro- versial strip searches has come under attack. “Imagine your teen- age daughter illegally strip- searched by police,” one DCCC ad against Perry said. The arguments are intense but


also a distraction fromthe econo- my, the issue thatweighs onDem- ocrats most. And that might well be the point. “Defending the last two years


isn’t working, and fighting this thing on issues isn’t working,” in- dependent political analyst Char- lie Cook said. “So it’s doing what- ever you can to personally dis- qualify your opponent.”


StaffwritersNia-MalikaHenderson and Jon Cohen contributed to this report.


kornbluta@washpost.com AMERICANCROSSROADSROLLINGINDOUGH


American Crossroads, a big-spending conservative group founded with the help of GOP gurus Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie, raised more than $15 million over the past six weeks from donors including Donald Trump and an Indianapolis popcorn company, according to newFEC reports. Bob Perry, a wealthy Texan known for his role in the Swift boat campaign attacks against Sen. John F. Kerry, was the group’s largest benefactor.He gave $7 million in September and October, accounting for nearly a third of Crossroads’ $24 million total. Other high-roller donors: $2 million from Alliance Resource


Group LLC of Tulsa; $2 million from TRTHoldings and its chief executive, billionaire Robert Rowling; and $1 million from B. WayneHughes, founder of Public Storage, report The Post’s Dan Eggen and T.W. Farnam. Trump pitched in $50,000, whileWeaver Popcorn gave $250,000. American Crossroads and its sister group, Crossroads GPS, are


among the biggest GOP spenders in this election cycle and have come under attack by President Obama and other Democrats. American Crossroads must report its donors; Crossroads GPS is a nonprofit that does not have to do so. The two groups together are on track to raise $65 million by the elections, organizers have said.


SCHOOLINGVOTERS


POSTPOLITICS.COM 6Use our map to track all 435House races, analyze past


CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS election results and drill down to district-level data.


LOISROMANO’SCAMPAIGNHIGHLIGHTS SAYWHAT?


“


I miss being pampered. I miss Air


Force One. I miss being commander in chief of an awesome group of


people.” —Former president GeorgeW. Bush, speaking at the University of Texas at Tyler. Bush has not been


campaigning for candidates leading up to the midterm elections.


ALLSHENEEDSISTHEACCENT California Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown put


out a newtelevision ad this week that ridiculesMeg Whitman, his GOP opponent, as sounding too much like Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. In the 60-second spot, Whitman and Schwarzenegger are shown on a split screen using virtually identical language to describe their leadership skills and experience. Brown’s goal: to link Whitman to Schwarzenegger, who has


become increasingly unpopular as the state’s finances have deteriorated. At one point in the ad, Schwarzenegger boasts, “I entered this


office beholden to no one except you.” Whitman says: “I will owe my office to no one but you.” In another segment, Schwarzenegger pontificates, “Insanity is


doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” Whitman’s match: “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and hoping for different results.” Whitman categorically denied being an Arnold mini-me. “I bring a lifetime of common sense from the real world of


running businesses and large organizations and creating jobs,” she told reporters this week. “Governor Schwarzenegger did a number of good things, but he was primarily an actor, he was primarily an investor, and I think missed a lot of the key things that could have been done.” No, there weren’t any visuals of her lifting weights.


BYTHENUMBERS


Love it or loathe it, it seems that the tea party movement has some credibility among the American public that probably isn’t making Democrats too happy.


55 37 8


Percent who think the movement can effectively bring about change—whether they agree with it or not.


Percent who say the movement can’t bring change. Percent who have no opinion. SOURCE: ABC NEWS-YAHOO POLL


Visit postpolitics.com for the latest midterm election news, opinions, blogs, photo galleries, interactive features and more.


THURSDAY, OCTOBER 21, 2010


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