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lapse or halted Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.” In fact, the editorial stated, the In-


ternational Monetary Fund estimated Russia’s gross domestic product had increased by 3.6% in 2024 — a higher growth rate than that of the U.S. and many other Western countries, largely due to massive war spending. Prior to its most recent invasion of


Ukraine in 2022, Russia had prepared for war by building up more than $640 billion in central bank reserves, only half of which are now subject to West- ern sanctions. The reserves have served as a finan-


cial cushion to stabilize its currency, along with its increased interest rates and its demand that Russian trading partners conduct transactions in Rus- sia’s currency, the ruble. Much depends on whether China


and India, which, according to esti- mates from the Finnish-based Centre for Research and Energy and Clean Air, now buy more than 80% of Russia’s crude exports, will continue to do so. Few China analysts think that Bei-


jing, which imports 2 million barrels of Russian oil per day, will curtail its purchases given its geopolitical part- nership with Moscow. Until now, India, whose imports


of Russian crude oil have soared from some 50,000 barrels per day in 2020 to nearly 1.8 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025, has also resisted Trump administration pressure to stop buying Russian oil, partly because it wants Moscow to remain neutral if ten- sions with China escalate yet again. But that could change if Trump is se-


rious about imposing secondary sanc- tions; that is, blacklisting those that do business with Russia’s oil companies or facilitate the sale of Russian oil. But Trump’s swings between ac-


commodation and anger toward Putin have frustrated Ukraine and its Euro- pean allies. Sanctions skeptics argue that the Russian economy has proven remark-


78 NEWSMAX | DECEMBER 2025


TRADE Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Moscow. India has rapidly deepened its energy ties with Russia, importing nearly 1.8 million barrels of crude oil per day in early 2025 — up from roughly 50,000 in 2020.


ably resilient despite Western efforts to diminish Putin’s determination to make Russia great again. Putin has proven skillful at devis-


ing workarounds, such as building a “shadow fleet” of oil transport tankers with opaque owners and using other intermediaries to continue exporting oil, particularly to Asian markets.


M


oscow is also said to have of- fered preferred oil customers


like China steep discounts to ensure continued sales. Putin has also shown his willingness


to absorb economic pain — as well as ex- traordinarily high casualties and battle- field losses for incremental territorial gains — to achieve his political aims. He has repeatedly stressed his de-


termination to prevent NATO from expanding along Russia’s border and ensure that Ukraine becomes behold- en to Moscow once again. Yet even Putin may have a political


and economic breaking point, other an- alysts argue. American oil production is at an all-time high, while Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries are also pump- ing more oil than their OPEC quotas, making it less likely that a shortage of oil will severely spike oil prices. Russia’s oil sector, moreover, is un-


der intense pressure. Its fields are old and require extensive investment to continue pumping at high volumes. Plus, Kyiv, in response to Russia’s strikes on Ukraine’s infrastructure and civilian targets, has been using its own missiles and drones against Russian oil targets.


Citing what he called Western in-


telligence sources, Zelenskyy asserted in October that Ukraine’s long-range strikes had reduced Russian oil refin- ing capacity by 20%. Robert Hormats, a former state undersecretary in the Obama admin- istration who had urged Trump to im- pose tough sanctions on Russia and provide Ukraine with more sophis- ticated weapons, argues that Wash- ington has long overestimated the strength of Russia’s economy. In an article for the Atlantic Council published only weeks before Trump’s new oil sanctions, he noted that Rus- sian inflation was already five times greater than that of the U.S. or most Western countries. More than 1,000 multinational com-


panies have already left Russia, along with 14 million jobs. More than 2 mil- lion highly skilled technology workers have also left the country. Foreign investment has plunged


from over $100 billion a year to almost zero. “The Russians excel at feigning invin-


cibility,” said Hormats in an interview. “But the Russian economy is reeling and is far more susceptible to economic pres- sure than they acknowledge.” Much depends, he added, on


whether Trump was not only willing to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs to defend itself, but also on his willingness to enforce the new sanc- tions aggressively. The earlier sanctions Biden im-


posed were “not being adequately en- forced,” he complained. Ian Bremmer, president of the Eur-


asia Group, says that while he still thinks sanctions alone are unlikely to end the war, they may succeed in driv- ing Putin to the negotiating table. “Sanctions alone may not be enough just yet,” he explained. “But they move the needle.”


Judith Miller is a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative reporter and an expert on U.S. foreign policy and the Middle East.


ALEXANDER KAZAKOV/POOL/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES


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