America FBI Crime Stats Hard to Believe
Latest numbers reveal thousands more murders, rapes, robberies than it previously reported.
W BY JOHN R. LOTT JR.
hen the fbi original- ly released the “final” crime data for 2022 in September 2023,
it reported that the nation’s violent crime rate fell by 2.1%. This quickly became a Democratic
Party talking point during the election to counter former President Donald Trump’s claims of soaring crime. But the FBI has quietly revised
those numbers, releasing new data that shows violent crime increased in 2022 by 4.5%. It includes thousands more mur-
ders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults. “I have checked the data on total
violent crime from 2004 to 2022,” Carl Moody, a professor at the College of William & Mary who specializes in studying crime, told RealClearInves- tigations. “There were no revisions from
2004 to 2015, and from 2016 to 2020, there were small changes of less than one percentage point. The huge changes in 2021 and 2022, especially without an explanation, make it dif- ficult to trust the FBI data.”
EXTENSIVE REVISIONS The updated data for 2022 report that there were 80,029 more violent crimes than in 2021. There were an additional 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 rob- beries, and 37,091 aggravated assaults. The question naturally arises:
Should the FBI’s 2023 numbers be believed? Without the increase, the drop in
violent crime in 2023 would have been less than half as large — only 1.6% instead of the reported drop of 3.5%. The FBI’s crime stats revisions
reveal how much guesswork is involved in even the “final” numbers often seized on by politicians. The FBI doesn’t simply count reported crimes. Instead, it offers estimates by extrapo- lating data from police departments that report only partial-year data. The bureau also makes estimates for cities that report no data.
MANY CRIMES UNREPORTED Most crimes go unreported, with only about 45% of violent crimes and 30% of property crimes brought to the police’s attention, according to the National Crime Victimization Survey. Since the FBI only tracks report-
REVISED FBI DATA SHOWS INCREASES IN CRIMES BETWEEN 2021 AND 2022 200,000
150,000 +29.3% 4.5% 100,000 +4.1% 50,000 -3.5% 0% 0 5% 10% KEY
Percent Change in NCVS Reported Crime
Percent Change in FBI Reported Crime
15% 20% 25% SOURCE: FBI Data, Crime Prevention Research Center
ed incidents and this gap is so large, researchers argue that when the media discusses crime rates based on FBI data, they should clarify that it reflects “reported” crime, not give the impres- sion that total crime is changing. Non-reporting of crime doesn’t affect
all crimes equally. Non-reporting is rare for murder and motor vehicle theft. In murder cases, victims can’t be overlooked, and for auto theft, insur- ance claims require police reports. However, it’s difficult to fully trust even these numbers because the FBI under- reported 1,699 murders and 54,216 motor vehicle thefts in 2022, casting doubt on the reliability of the data. The results of the department’s
Bureau of Justice Statistics 2023 National Crime Victimization Survey, released in mid-September, tell a very different story from the FBI data. The NCVS interviews 240,000 people each year about their personal experiences. Instead of the FBI’s 3.5% drop in
the reported violent crime rate in 2023, the NCVS found a 4.1% increase in the reported violent crime rate. Even with the revised FBI numbers,
in 2022, the FBI’s 4.5% increase pales in comparison to the NCVS’s 29.1% increase.
John R. Lott Jr. is president of the Crime Prevention Research Center.
CRIME RATE CONFLICT +13.6% -6.6%
22 NEWSMAX | DECEMBER 2024
VIOLENT CRIME 80,029
MURDER & NONNEGLIGENT MANSLAUGHTER 1,699
RAPE (REVISED DEFINITION) 5,035
RAPE (LEGACY DEFINITION) 7,780
ROBBERY 33,459
AGGRAVATED ASSAULT 37,091
PROPERTY CRIME RATE 198,015 BURGLARY 29,824 LARCENY-THEFT 113,975
MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT 54,216
2023 2022 2021
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