Newsfront


Don’t Count Putin Out


Wagner rebellion


made him look weak, but brutal leaders have survived worse.


W


BY WALTER RUSSELL MEAD inston


churchill


reportedly said that Kremlin political in- trigues are like “a bull-


dog fi ght under a rug,” and that the only way outsiders know who won is when the bones of the loser fl ew out. At some point the Kremlin situa-


tion will resolve. Wagner warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin could step too close to an open window. His nemesis, Russian Defense


Minister Sergei Shoigu, might decide to spend more time with his family. Or President Vladimir Putin


might demand an end to the infi ght- ing and force a staged reconciliation between the rivals. Meanwhile, many Western com- mentators are crowing over what looks like a major setback for Putin and his war in Ukraine. Certainly, the Wagner putsch was


an embarrassment for his regime. It revealed much about the tensions building in the Russian elite as the war drags on. It made Putin look indecisive and


weak. This is not an image that a wartime dictator needs. But ugly regimes don’t always


melt away simply because we would like them to. Over many years Stalin’s dicta-


torship endured one factional fi ght after another, but through them all Stalin tightened his grip. Hitler consolidated his power over the Wehrmacht after the assas-


12 NEWSMAX | AUGUST 2023


POISONED CHALICE Newsmax magazine reported in the March issue on the rise of Yevgeny Prigozhin from being Vladimir Putin’s chef, seen here pouring a glass of wine for the Russian president in 2011, to becoming the billionaire boss of the formidable Wagner mercenaries. It noted Kremlin of icials feared he might launch a coup.


sination attempt of July 1944, and only death broke his hold over the once rebellious German offi cer class. The Wagner mutiny may mark


the beginning of the end of Putin’s power, or it may mark the start of a new, more intense phase of totali- tarian rule in Moscow.


The Wagner putsch made Putin look indecisive and weak. This is not an image that a wartime dictator needs.


There are three things to bear in mind. Politics in nondemocratic soci-


eties, especially Russia, can look very diff erent from what we know in the West. They usually take place behind closed doors. When the infi ghting bursts into the open, it can look dramatic, but drama isn’t always catastrophe. The public was, for the most part, uninvolved. There were scattered signs of public support for Wagner,


but there was no surge of public unrest. Dictatorships rely on pub- lic acquiescence and passivity much more than on enthusiastic support, and judging from June’s events, Putin’s hold on the Russian street looks reasonably secure. We


should remember that


Prigozhin and Shoigu both have real successes under their belts. Wagner matters to Putin. It won, at great cost, the only real Russian victory in recent months when its troops forced the Ukrainians out of Bakhmut. Wagner mercenaries have made


great strides across the Middle East and Africa, bringing wealth and prestige to the Kremlin. Prigozhin may be too valuable to discard. But Shoigu is also useful. After a


string of reversals, the Russian army seems to have stepped up its game. Additionally, his Central Asian


ethnic background makes him a safe choice to lead the defense ministry because he would have a hard time launching a coup. The West very much wants Putin


to fail, but he may be in less trouble than many of us hope. — The Wall Street Journal


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