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BEWARE OF FINANCIAL “BLACK SWANS”


Savy investors understand that Bear Markets destroy Financial wealth. Although the media loves to overhype volatility and speculation as the “end of the Financial World” as we know it, reality shows us that 10 – 20% market corrections are now commonplace! In 2022, Financial Markets lost over $280 billion in client value and Markets are still standing! However, there is no doubt that significant wealth will continue to be lost as well as gained going forward!


When a buildup of negative factors align against Markets, prudence dictates that responsible planning to protect your hard earned wealth should include a Diversification strategy highlighting safety and protection from volatility! $280 billion in lost Stock Market wealth, the real threat of Recession, a potential 5 year FLAT RECOVERY, high interest rates and stubborn inflation certainly count as flashing red lights for Markets going forward!


While high interest rates and inflation are significant enough on their own to adjust Markets downward, perhaps no single event presents more volatility and danger to Personal Assets and future Wealth Accumulation than “Black Swan” events!


The term “Black Swan” event was coined in 2001 by a prominent Wall Street trader. The definition of a financial Black Swan is “a fast forming, supremely negative event leaving widespread destruction with a notoriously uncertain exit outcome”! Of course, in hindsight, the warning signs of every previous Black Swan event have been proven predictable based on known negative conditions leading up to the event. Why then was no one “ringing the alarm bell” and warning the private investor? The answer could very well be that no one was listening over the hype, or it just may not have been in the Broker’s best interests to do so.


Recent examples of Black Swan financial events include the Covid Pandemic, which has cost Trillions of dollars in losses on just about everything! The current Russian aggression in Ukraine is the most recent Black Swan event currently causing havoc with the World Economy. The DOT.com bubble in 2000 and the near World Wide Depression caused by the Financial crisis of 2007/8 are two other Black Swan events. In summary, over the past 23 years, there have been 4 near catastrophic Black Swan events that have rocked the North American economy. The after affects of 3 Black Swans are still being felt and the fourth, the Russian invasion, could cast its’ negative impact in the form of a flat recovery on the World Economy through to 2030! Markets are already factoring more risk into short term versus long term instruments. MARKETS HATE UNCERTAINTY!


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