Politics
As Parties Pivot to 2020, Political Candidates Worry:
Pollsters Can No Longer Be Trusted
T BY TODD BEAMON
wenty-four hours before the Nov. 6 elec- tion, it looked like the contests for senator and governor in Florida might be all over. A Quinnipiac University Poll on the eve of
the election had Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson leading Republican Gov. Rick Scott by 7 points, and Demo- cratic gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum ahead of Republican U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis by 7 points. In a poll with a 3.5 margin of error, Quinnipiac seemed
to be all but declaring the Democrats would win. Based on the polls, Washington Monthly was predicting as early as September, “The blue wave may have finally reached Florida.” But on election night, Florida’s blue wave hit a red wall.
After several days of recounts the Republican candidates were certified winners of both races. Democratic pollster Doug Schoen tells Newsmax of
the polling: “There was an under-representation of Republicans. That’s pretty clear.”
Nationally, Democrats
retook control of the House, and Republicans increased their advantage in the Sen- ate to three seats. But the blue wave many had pre- dicted never materialized. As the 2018 polls sug-
gest, strategists for both parties will ramp up for 2020, knowing the survey- method and turnout-model problems that bedeviled pollsters in 2016 have yet to be resolved. Unless the issues of how
to reach voters and accu- rately gauge their turnout are solved, the polling prob-
lems are likely to continue, and may get worse. Nate Silver, the data-driven journalist behind the Five Thirty-Eight website, described it as “a super-good night for polling.” And from a pollster’s perspective, any result within the poll’s plus/minus margin of error is a statistical success — even if the candidate who appeared to be trailing ends up on top. But many pollsters got specific races wrong, and when
they did so, Democrats tended to garner fewer votes than the polls predicted.
Among the examples: In Indiana, Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly had a slight lead in the polls — 1.3 percentage points on average — over Republican business executive Mike Braun. Braun won by 5.9 points. In the Ohio gubernatorial race, surveys had former Dem- ocratic Attorney General Rich Cordray winning by 3 to 7 points. But Republican Attorney General Mike DeWine, a former U.S. senator, won by 4.3 points. The Missouri Senate race had mixed results: Two polls had Republican Attorney General Josh Hawley winning by 3 to 4 points, while one had embattled incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill victorious by 3 — and another calling it a tie. The Real Clear Politics (RCP) poll average had Hawley winning by 0.6 points. He won by 6.0 per- centage points. In Utah, one poll had incumbent Republican Rep. Mia Love losing to Democratic Salt Lake City Mayor Ben McAdams by 7 points, while two others called it a tie. RCP
Polls Misjudging Republicans’ Strength
FLORIDA SENATOR
REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE RICK SCOTT
Polls Predicted Loss: -7.0% Actual Election Result:
+0.2% WIN
INDIANA SENATOR
REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE MICHAEL BRAUN
Polls Predicted Loss: -1.3% Actual Election Result:
+5.9% WIN
MISSOURI SENATOR
REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE JOSH HAWLEY
One Poll Predicted Loss: -3.0% Actual Election Result:
+6.0% WIN
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