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Aug_Sep26.indd 1 2/7/26 10:34 MACAU BUSINESS By Paolo A. Azevedo
The camel already has two humps; will it have a third?
No one dares to predict what gaming revenues will look like in the next 10 years. The uncertainty is great; perhaps a third hump is the most likely scenario.
M
acau’s trajectory is the most dramatic in the history of modern gaming – surging from MOP 18.4 billion in 2000 to a peak of MOP 360.8 billion in 2013, a boom fueled by the expansion of VIP junkets and the opening of Cotai’s mega-resorts.
Then came the anti-corruption crackdown, which dealt a heavy blow to VIP revenues. The market experienced a second peak in 2019 at MOP 292.5 billion, following a correction between 2015 and 2016 and a subsequent recovery driven by mass gaming.
Soon after, COVID-19 crushed gross gaming revenue (GGR) to a low of MOP 42 billion in 2022, with the brunt of the pandemic’s impact felt between 2020 and 2022.
The recovery in 2025 to MOP 247.2 billion is substantial, but it still represents only 84 per cent of the pre-pandemic levels seen in 2019. Looking at the data graph, the two humps of the camel are clearly defined. The big question moving forward is whether the camel will form a third hump, or if revenues will stabilise into a plateau. For a third hump (the optimistic scenario, marked in green): The post-junket recovery reflects a sustained pivot from VIP junkets to the premium- mass and mass segments, where players still wager substantial amounts per baccarat hand. This shift allows operators to benefit from lower complimentary costs and broader non-gaming investments required under their 10-year licence terms.
24 OCTOBER 2026
Jeju will be as big as Singapore in terms of Gross Gaming Revenue, predicts Lawrence Teo. The Chief Operations Officer and Vice President of Dream Tower, the tallest Integrated Resort under construction on the Korean destination island, explains to Macau Business why Lotte Tour decided to enter the casino business and create a landmark. All bets are on making the casino resort the crown of the tourism jewel the company has been dominating for four decades
Jeju – the new Singapore
For a structural plateau (the baseline case, marked in amber): By 2026, the Macau government is projecting annual revenue of MOP 236 billion, while analysts are slightly more optimistic. Brokerages such as Jefferies and Seaport Partners predict year-on-y ear increases of roughly 6 to 7 per cent. The consensus points more toward a gentle drift upwards to between MOP 260 billion and MOP
280 billion—not a new camel’s hump, but a high tableland.
There is also a more pessimistic scenario that emphasises the weight of structural limitations: the permanent removal of junket operators following the post-2022 crackdown means the old VIP ceiling is gone. The first hump is structurally impossible to replicate without that engine. Furthermore, Beijing’s tight capital outflow
Macau’s progress as a world-renowned casino tourism destination has been
unprecedented Ricardo Siu
M
acau Business – From Lotte World, a major recreational complex [with the world’s largest indoor theme park, in Seoul] to an integrated resort with casino in Jeju. A different beast. A
natural evolution? Lawrence Teo – Business is the same. But building
a landmark. M. B. – The group [Lotte] has created other landmarks in different types of business. Why would this be different?
to do the Dream Tower in Jeju. Lotte here is being just a family company; we’re a different company [Lotte Tour]. It’s not going to be [just] the tallest and the largest building in Jeju, that’s just the hardware. We say that a landmark should be the most visited destination, where tourists will go to eat, shop and maybe [visit] our observation deck. A must-visit point destination. Because of the hardware, and also the software.
M. B. – What are the main goals that you definitely
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