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Equal and opposite Sharon Harris mentions buffets just long enough to make us feel hungry. Grab a plate and read on…
He claims these platforms operate outside of sports betting regulations in 40 legal jurisdictions. They also bypass laws barring sports betting in the 11 states without it. Miller condemns Kalshi and others who defi antly state “they don’t need to follow state-and tribal-regulated sports betting laws or pay state gaming taxes.” Instead, they promote themselves as “investments” rather than entertainment.
Kalshi, the most public prediction market company, and Polymarket, are the face of the problem. Several prominent athletes participate as spokespersons and investors. Sports betting generates about 80 percent of Kalshi’s volume. An estimated $5.1 billion is derived from underage users, ages 18-20, well below the legal age in most sports betting jurisdictions.
hen Sir Isaac Newton published his Third Law of Motion theory in 1687, he hypothesized that every action resulted in an equal and opposite reaction. That seems obvious today, but it was groundbreaking centuries ago. Remember, only 200 years earlier, most people at the time believed the world was fl at. Situations often occur in pairs, but are these forces truly equal?
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Two current gaming issues are testing this premise. The fi rst is the uproar over prediction markets, their questionable legality and destructive poaching of legal sports betting players and their money. Heading into the G2E, prediction markets will consume much of the conversation. At G2E 2025, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie gave an impassioned warning about the scourge of prediction markets. Conditions have
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reached a point where the American Gaming Association (AGA) recently released a disturbing press release, coinciding with the start of the National Football League’s (NFL) 2026-2027 football season last month and the G2E this month. The AGA predicts that millions of Americans will legally wager $29.5 billion on the 2026-2027 NFL season through U.S. regulated commercial sportsbooks. Sounds impressive, but that number refl ects fl at growth compared to $29.4 billion last year.
While most betters still choose legal, state- regulated sportsbooks, prediction markets have cut into the operations and profi ts across all 50 states and Washington, DC. AGA President/CEO Bill Miller said, “Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called ‘prediction markets,’ the growth of legal handle has stalled.”
While legal gaming supports 1.8 million jobs and pays $18 billion a year in sports betting tax revenue, Kalshi and Polymarket have “siphoned” off more than $1.3 billion in potential state gaming tax revenue since 2025.
However, gaming and law enforcement are not caving in and have initiated some successful legal challenges. The Ninth Circuit, the largest in the U.S., unanimously ruled that states and voters determine how sports betting works in their communities. The Court’s jurisdiction covers nine western states and two Pacifi c territories Miller reacted strongly, saying, “The Ninth Circuit’s unanimous decision confi rmed state and voter choices about sports betting in their communities. The American Gaming Association applauds Nevada’s leadership for protecting and preserving the state- and tribal-regulated gaming framework. This ruling is a signifi cant win for consumer protections and taxpayers. It is a big loss for Kalshi and other backdoor sports gambling operations who defy state laws.”
8/9/26 09:38
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