TRENDS IN IGAMING
Is Brazil’s ‘exit strategy’ a black market invitation?
With SBC Americas and World Cup 2026 just around the corner, Julian Pitts, head of commercial for affi liate tracking PaaS shares valuable insight on what’s next for the LatAm market – and it’s all eyes on Brazil, he says.
THE BLACK MARKET DOESN’T CARE ABOUT GOVERNMENT DECREES
If Brazil were to revoke licenses or re-prohibit gambling, the demand for sports betting and online casinos wouldn’t vanish; it would simply migrate.
For a government currently focused on tax revenue and player protection, a return to the grey or black status quo would mean losing both the fiscal windfall and the ability to monitor the very social risks they are concerned about.
F
or the global iGaming industry, Brazil has long been the sleeping giant that finally woke up. But as the country nears the finish line of its multi-year regulatory marathon, a new narrative has emerged from the halls of Brasília: the suggestion that if social costs become too high, the government could pull the plug on the entire industry.
For B2B stakeholders, affiliates, and affiliate tracking providers, the threat of a ban could mean a loss of licenses, and the ever-looming threat of the rise of the black market.
However, recent admissions from within President Lula’s cabinet suggest that the nuclear option of ending gambling – which has been in the iGaming industry press a lot recently – is less of a policy shift and more of a political impossibility.
ACKNOWLEDGING A HARD TRUTH
The discourse shifted recently after the President’s sentiments were revealed when the country’s Social Development Minister, Wellington Dias, acknowledged a hard truth that the industry has known for decades: you cannot simply legislate a billion-dollar appetite out of existence.
Despite the high-profile rhetoric regarding the social impact of gambling for vulnerable players, Dias admitted that ending gambling in Brazil is practically unfeasible.
20 MAY 2026 GIO
The narrative of revoking licenses to reset the market is a dangerous one. In the iGaming world, trust is the primary currency. If Brazil establishes a precedent where a license can be revoked due to shifting political winds, the high-tier, Tier-1 operators – those most likely to invest in responsible gambling and local infrastructure – will flee to more stable jurisdictions like Colombia or the emerging Peruvian market.
What remains would be a vacuum filled by offshore operators who offer zero player protection, zero tax contributions, and zero transparency. As Minister Dias’ comments imply, the difficulty of ending gambling is that prohibition is essentially an endorsement of the underground economy.
AFFILIATE TRACKING COULD HELP MITIGATE BLACK MARKET RISK
For affiliate marketers and tracking software providers, this period of political sabre- rattling highlights a critical shift in the LatAm business model – in a volatile regulatory environment, tracking doesn’t just help calculate CPA or revenue share, it’s also vital for compliance.
As the Brazilian government scrutinises the industry’s impact on the Bolsa Família (welfare) recipients, the ability to track and segment traffic with surgical precision becomes one of the industry’s best defences.
Advanced tracking allows operators to prove to regulators that they are not aggressively targeting high-risk demographics, which helps with attribution and KYC.
In addition, if the government demands a kill switch for certain types of marketing, only those with robust, transparent tracking infrastructures will survive the audit, making data transparency important. This sort of regulatory whiplash where rules change overnight could be really damaging to the perception of the viability of the market.
WHAT ELSE COULD HELP BUSINESSES IN THE REGION? Doubling down on RG has to become an important part of a political survival kit. Tracking providers must offer tools that allow for the immediate blacklisting of non-compliant marketing channels to protect the operator’s license.
Deepening ties with local payment processors and technical partners could also help – it makes it harder for the government to unplug the industry without causing significant collateral damage to the domestic fintech sector.
Ultimately, while the threat of a ban makes for a good headline, the reality is that Brazil is too far down the rabbit hole to turn back. However, with better data, better tracking, and a relentless focus on proving that a regulated market is the only way to keep the black market at bay, things should hopefully improve.
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68 |
Page 69 |
Page 70 |
Page 71 |
Page 72 |
Page 73 |
Page 74 |
Page 75 |
Page 76
