talking trade WILL JONES Chief Operating Officer of the British Home Enhancement Trade Association (BHETA) Getting on with it
While the powers that be are holding their collective breath, suppliers and retailers need to remain focused and active
overall economy is standing still. It’s as if the UK was waiting for something to happen - and I wonder what that could be! To be very serious, however, the malaise that is the inability to plan effectively for post- election and post-Brexit is a serious concern; and its effects are evident in this prolonged period when both supply and retail - and consumers - are ‘hedging their bets’, reluctant to forge ahead when there is such uncertainty. We must not allow this ‘paralysis’ to continue. On a positive note, most of the BHETA housewares members that I talk to - and their trading partners - are doing their level best to ‘get on with it’, regardless of the politics. By which I mean: nurturing relationships, taking account of trends and seasonal
W
ith all the official figures showing only ‘moderate’ change - both positive and negative - it must appear that the
opportunities and backing innovations in product, retail method and routes to market. They are also unafraid of making sometimes
tough decisions in terms of operations, back office, logistics and recruitment. The probability is that we will not know the full impact of Brexit in terms of its effects on labour, costs, tariffs, legislation and so on for several years, so no-one in the industry can afford to wait for things to be clearer.
It is also just possible that once the election is
over and its outcome perhaps makes the future of Brexit clearer, there may be a positive bounce in consumer confidence. And if that is the case, the industry needs to be ready to take advantage.
Meanwhile, BHETA is busy providing all the information it can to members about possible impacts and mitigating actions that could be
considered ahead of any more certainty. At the most recent BHETA forum, BHETA business service providers set out some clear assessments of likely legislative implications over the next few years, such as currency fluctuations, changes in recruitment and employment law, packaging waste and the impact of counterfeiting.
One thing is clear: while the powers that be
are holding their collective breath, suppliers and retailers need to remain focused and active - both in response to the undoubted opportunities and the possible threats. We need a ‘business as usual’ attitude and the impetus to get on with it.
• For more information about BHETA, contact the member services team on 0121 237 1130 or visit
www.bheta.co.uk.
Consumer Price Index The Consumer Price Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 1.5% in October 2019, down from 1.7% in September 2019. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month inflation rate was 1.5% in October 2019, down from 1.7% in September 2019.
Retail Sales In the three months to October 2019, the quantity bought in retail sales increased by 0.2%. Food stores were the only main sector to see growth, up 0.8%. Year-on-year growth in the quantity bought increased by 3.1% in October, with growth across all sectors except household goods stores.
Mortgage Approvals According to the Bank of England, net mortgage borrowing by households was little changed at £3.8 billion in September 2019, close to the average of the past three years. The number of mortgages approved for house purchase in the UK increased to 65,919.
House Price Index UK average house prices increased by 1.3% over the year to September 2019, unchanged from August 2019. Average house prices increased over
the year in England to £251,000 (1%), Wales to £164,000 (2.6%), Scotland to £155,000 (2.4%) and Northern Ireland to £140,000 (4%).
Labour Market The UK employment rate was estimated at 76%; 0.5% higher than a year earlier but 0.1% lower than the last quarter. The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 3.8%; 0.2% lower than a year earlier and 0.1% lower than the last quarter.
Construction Output Construction output increased by 0.6% in Quarter 3 (July to September) 2019, partially reversing the decrease of 1.2% in Quarter 2 (April to June) 2019. This growth in Quarter 3 2019 was driven by a rise in new work of 1.4% but offset slightly by a fall in repair and maintenance of 0.8%.
Commodity Prices Energy commodity prices reversed course in November, falling 3.7%. Prices are off 2.4% this year. Non-energy commodities rose 0.9% and are unchanged for the year. Among the major sub- groups, fertilizers have registered the largest decline this year (-13.1%) and precious metals the largest gain (+19.4%).
Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) The UK Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 in November 2019 from 49.6 in October. The reading pointed to the seventh straight month of contraction in the factory sector, mainly due to lower levels of output, new orders and employment, amid global economic uncertainty and domestic political upheaval.
Foreign Exchange Analysis Sterling climbed above 10-day lows versus the dollar on November 25, as opinion polls continued to show the Conservative Party to be the runaway favourite to win the December election.
1 GBP = 1.16 EUR 1 GBP = 1.28 USD
Source: BHETA Economic Snapshot –November 2019
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December 2019
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