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The heating trilemma: “Heat pump or boiler?” isn’t the right question to ask
Business development director at Naked Energy Christian Albrecht explores the challenge of solving “the heating trilemma” balancing sustainability, aff ordability and security
T
he confl ict in Iran has changed how people think about energy. As fuel prices rose by 90% in the fi rst week of the confl ict, we could
no longer ignore how exposed businesses and consumers are to volatile gas markets. This latest energy shock could be a turning point
for clean heat. With around three quarters of the world’s heating still coming from fossil fuels, the need to move away from gas is obvious. Many businesses set a 2030 target for Net
Zero years ago, when delivery timelines felt manageable. Now those plans need to be implemented, and the costs and infrastructure demands are starting to stack up. That is where businesses run into the heating trilemma: the need to balance sustainability, aff ordability, and security at the same time. They need to cut emissions, keep heat aff ordable, and make sure their energy supply is reliable. All three pressures are now pushing companies
away from gas. The war in Iran has shown again that gas supply is not always secure, and when supply is disrupted, it quickly becomes unaff ordable. But solving the heating trilemma is not simple, especially for businesses with large and constant heat demand. The fi rst and most palpable challenge is
aff ordability. For a large industrial site, installing a low or zero-carbon heating system can cost upwards of £10 million. Many companies want to get off gas, but the upfront cost can make the business case diffi cult, even when the environmental case is strong. The second challenge is security. NESO is managing a huge grid connections queue, with some projects reportedly facing waits of up to 15 years. For businesses that need resilience now, that is a serious barrier. The third is sustainability. In the UK, heat
produces around 37% of national emissions, yet remains one of the hardest parts of the energy system to decarbonise. Many commercial and industrial sites need hot water or process heat every day, and are under pressure to cut the emissions linked to that demand. Too often, the heating trilemma is framed as a simple choice between sticking with a gas boiler or switching to a heat pump. Heat pumps are essential to the Net Zero
transition. But for businesses with high heat demand or needing to decarbonise quickly, a heat pump alone may not solve the heating trilemma. It can cut emissions while increasing demand on an
22 August 2026
Left: Christian Albrecht, Business development director at Naked Energy
already stretched grid, creating new risks around energy security and aff ordability. Relying heavily on electricity without reducing demand at the point of use can leave businesses exposed to disruption and potentially higher costs. This is not to say companies should not electrify their heating. It is clearly the future, and nearly every business will need to do it in some way. But presenting electrifi cation as the only solution for companies facing the heating trilemma is misleading and risks doing more harm than good. There are far more options, even if they are not always presented to customers. We need to think beyond “heat pump versus boiler” and look at the whole system.
Grid-edge technologies have an important role
to play. These solutions generate or store energy at, or near, the point where it is used, reducing pressure on the grid and helping businesses cut
exposure to volatile energy markets. They can also work with existing systems, so a business does not have to update their entire infrastructure in one go. Solar thermal is one clear example. It captures the sun’s energy directly as heat, rather than turning it into electricity fi rst. For businesses that need hot water or process heat, it provides low- carbon heat on-site without adding extra electrical demand to the grid. Also, solar thermal can work in concert with boilers, heat pumps, thermal storage and heat recovery systems, displacing gas use, reducing bills from day one while enabling deeper decarbonisation later.
The best answer is often a combination of grid and grid-edge technologies. For example, solar thermal can improve the
performance of a heat pump. Instead of relying only on cold ambient air as the heat source, solar thermal raises the source temperature. That means the heat pump doesn’t need to work as hard to generate the temperature required, drawing less power from the grid, and saving money in the process. To make the transition aff ordable and secure, businesses need to think bigger than the grid and use diff erent technologies in combination. That is how we decarbonise British industry. It’s very possible, provided we stop pretending there’s only one answer
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