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State of the industry – plumbing and heating in 2026 and beyond


Harry Budd, marketing director at Logic4training, considers the state of the plumbing industry in 2026 and the training pathways and qualifi cations required to tackle ever growing skills gaps


P


lumbing is the foundation of the low-carbon heating industry. Every heat pump installed in a UK home depends on the same core skillset that has underpinned central heating for decades: pipework, hot water cylinders, radiators and system design. As government targets accelerate, how do we build a robust installer base with the skills and experience required to achieve net zero?


Key fi gures


¡ 73,700 – new plumbers needed across the UK by 2032 ¡ 540 – plumbing and domestic heating apprentices who completed their training in 2024/25, down from 3,350 in 2018/19. ¡ 47% – apprenticeship drop-out rate between 2021 and 2024 (all sectors) ¡ 55 – half of all gas engineers are over the age of 55 ¡ 20% – share of UK greenhouse gas emissions that come from heating homes ¡ 85% – estimated proportion of UK homes that are currently heated by gas ¡ £15bn – government investment under the Warm Homes Plan, covering low carbon upgrades to five million homes by 2030 ¡ 450,000 – target number of heat pump installations per year by 2030 ¡ 33% – compound annual growth in heat pump sales needed to hit that target ¡ 40% – drop-off rate between people completing heat pump training and those who go on to actively install


Plumbing in 2026


The plumbing and heating skills shortage has been building for decades, but it is now colliding with the urgent need for decarbonisation. An ageing workforce, a disrupted apprenticeship system and years of over-emphasis on academic pathways mean that plumbers and heating installers are


Above: Harry Budd, marketing director at Logic4training


TRAINING


retiring at a much faster rate than new entrants are qualifying. With half the workforce due to retire in the next 10-20 years, the loss of knowledge and experience will be devastating if it is not eff ectively passed down to younger installers. Meanwhile, apprenticeship pipelines are underperforming. Nearly half of those who start apprenticeships don’t fi nish, and not enough newly qualifi ed plumbers enter the trade each year. This trend can also be seen further up the skills pipeline, with data from the Heat Pump Association (HPA) showing that around 40% of those who complete heat pump training do not go on to actively install heat pumps. The result is a widening gap between the workforce the market needs and those on the tools. We are starting to see more support for qualifi ed


installers, for example, Nesta’s Start at Home schemes, manufacturer support and MCS umbrella schemes, which aim to minimise barriers and build confi dence in the workforce.


Closing the gap


New entrants require more than one training pathway. Apprenticeships remain a natural fi t for a practical trade, but the traditional four-year model is too slow and infl exible to meet demand on its own. A wider mix of entry points is needed for school leavers, career changers and workers with transferable skills. CIPHE’s proposed new apprenticeship standards, including a Level 2 entry point, should help widen access, however, approval has been paused by Skills England with no confi rmed timeline at the time of writing. To meet the demands of a modern, multi-skilled


installer base, the workforce does not just need to grow in numbers, it needs to broaden in terms of


skills and knowledge. The scope of a plumber in 2026 needs to extend beyond pipework and boilers to include heat pumps, low-temperature system design, renewables integration, underfl oor heating and water effi ciency, with tens of thousands of new entrants and upskilling engineers needed.


Industry-based training


Alongsid renticeships, industry-based training providers off er an alternative route to competence, if courses provide practical, hands-on experience delivered by expert trainers, rather than paper qualifi cations alone. For those looking to enter the plumbing industry, the typical pathway starts with a Level 2 Diploma in Plumbing and Water Regulations qualifi cation (WRAS), progressing to an NVQ and JIB Skills Card. Once the base qualifi cations and experience


have been achieved, plumbers are well placed to specialise. Level 3 heat pump qualifi cations, alongside the Low Temperature Heating and Hot Water Systems Design in Dwellings award from LCL Awards, CIPHE and the HPA, deliver the design and commissioning knowledge needed for MCS accreditation.


Upskilling the workforce


The targets set out by the government in the Warm Homes Plan and Future Homes Standard are ambitious, but not unachievable. What is needed to reach them is a skills pipeline that treats plumbing not only as a traditional trade, but also as the essential ‘fi rst-step’ to a career as a multi-skilled low-carbon heating installer. https://www.logic4training.co.uk/new-entrants/ how-to-become-a-plumber/


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