the future prosperity, vitality, and security of our country. There are currently millions of open jobs, and the US birth rate continues to fall. “By 2040, all population growth


in the US is projected to come from immigrants. Rather than focusing solely on enforcement, the US government should design an immigration system that meets today’s needs and promotes economic growth.”


TRADE TARRIFS Fears over Mr Trump’s likely effects on legal migration and global mobility are only overshadowed by what his much-publicised plans are for imposing tariffs on international exports heading into the US, with his prime targets appearing to be China, Canada, Mexico and the European Union. The president has already signed a ‘broad trade memorandum’ instructing federal agencies to complete a comprehensive review of trade issues by April 1, including an analysis of persistent US trade deficits, unfair trade practices and currency manipulation among partner


countries.


The memorandum calls for recommendations on remedies, including a “global supplemental tariff”. Hence, nobody is sure what is going to happen, including, it seems, Mr Trump himself. At one


stage he talked about imposing tariffs of up to 60 per cent on Chinese goods, yet by the end of his first week in office, he was telling Fox News that he “would rather not” have to impose any such penalties on China... only to add that tariffs represented America’s “tremendous power” over Beijing. And only 24 hours before that,


in a live video broadcast to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Mr Trump told global executives that they could either produce their goods in the US or face widespread tariffs worth hundreds of billions, or even trillions, of dollars. He had earlier singled out the


EU as a bloc that had a troubling trade surplus with the United States. “The European Union is very, very bad to us,” he said. “So they’re going to be in for tariffs. It’s the only way... you’re going to get fairness.” Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director-


general of the World Trade Organisation, told the Davos gathering that such a move could spark a global, tit-for-tat trade war that would have devastating consequences for global growth. “If we have tit-for-tat retaliation... we’re going to see double-digit global GDP losses. That’s catastrophic. Everyone will pay,” he said. The UK, however, remains


quietly optimistic that it will escape any tariffs that Mr Trump imposes.


Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said in Davos that she did not think the UK would be a target mainly because the UK had a trade deficit with America. “I believe in free and open trade,


and I’ll be making that case to my counterparts in the United States. I’m excited about the opportunity to work with the new Trump administration,” she said. “Trade between the UK and the


US is worth £300 billion a year. A million Brits work for American firms, a million Americans work for British firms, so our economies are closely intertwined, and I look forward to enhancing and strengthening that relationship.” Just how much of that


relationship – along with so much else – survives the test of time, remains to be seen.


“ IF WE HAVE TIT-FOR-TAT RETALIATION... WE’RE GOING TO SEE DOUBLE- DIGIT GLOBAL GDP LOSSES. THAT’S CATASTROPHIC. EVERYONE WILL PAY.”


NGOZI OKONJO-IWEALA, DIRECTOR- GENERAL, WORLD TRADE ORGANISATION


39


GLOBAL MOBILITY


STRATE G Y


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