Paradoxically, at a time when the anti-immigrant message of far-right groups – particularly in Europe and North America – is gaining unparalleled popularity among voters, a growing number of voices are insisting that global movement could be the only way to prevent economic collapse in the next decade or two, writes David Sapsted.


T


he reason for the latter simply comes down to births: the fact the fertility rate in most wealthy nations – including China, India, the US and virtually all of Europe – has now


fallen well below the rate needed to sustain populations at current levels, which would leave ever-shrinking workforces incapable of generating the wherewithal to support a ‘silver tsunami’ of elderly. The New York-based McKinsey Global Institute


reported recently: “Falling fertility rates are propelling major economies toward population collapse in this century. Two-thirds of humanity lives in countries with fertility below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per family. By 2100, populations in some major economies will fall by 20 to 50 percent, based on UN projections. “Age structures are inverting from pyramids to


obelisks, as the number of older people grows and the number of younger people shrinks. The first wave of this demographic shift is hitting advanced economies and China, where the share of people of working age will fall to 59 per cent in 2050, from 67 per cent today. Later waves will engulf younger regions within one or two generations. Sub-Saharan Africa is the only exception.” Last year, Yoon Suk Yeol, the-then president of South


Korea where the fertility rate tumbled to just 0.72 in 2024, declared the birthrate a “national emergency” and announced plans for a dedicated government ministry to try and tackle the issue. Greece’s fertility rate of 1.3 poses an “existential” population threat, according Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Washington-based academic Otaviano Canuto, a former executive director of both the World Bank and


International Monetary Fund, says that, at the moment, immigration represents the most effective mechanism to counteract demographic decline. Research he has conducted with economist Eduardo Andrade shows how immigration “has contributed to economic growth in high-income countries by replenishing the workforce, stimulating demand, and alleviating the fiscal burden of ageing populations”. Yet, he says, an “immigration conundrum” has now


emerged. “Despite its economic benefits, immigration faces mounting resistance in many high income countries. Anti-immigrant sentiment has been a decisive force in elections across Europe and North America, with populist movements leveraging fears of cultural displacement and economic insecurity to rally support. This backlash has complicated policymaking, with governments struggling to reconcile economic necessity with political reality.” But opposition to immigration is not uniform, Prof


Canuto adds, with some politicians in the US and Europe advocating a total halt to immigration while others favour policies that prioritise highly educated migrants. “If history is any guide,” he says, “economic logic


alone is unlikely to override nationalist impulses. However, as labour shortages intensify and pension systems come under strain, the need for pragmatic immigration policies will become harder to ignore. The question is not whether immigration can help address ageing-related economic challenges – it already does. The real question is whether societies are willing to accept it as part of a long-term solution.”


IS EASING IMMIGRATION A LONG-TERM SOLUTION? That long-term solution is already beginning to find favour in Japan where the fertility rate in 2024 dipped to 1.20. Hiroshi Yoshida, the director of Tohoku University’s Research Center for Aged Economy and Society, told the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper: “As long as the decline in the number of births does not stop, the hands of the ‘clock’ will never turn back. Japan may become the first country to become extinct due to the declining birth rate. We should create an environment in which women and the elderly can work and aim for a society in which all people can play an active role.” For some years, Japan has invested billions of yen in


pro-natal policies, such as child care allowances and part- time working practices, but the bids to boost births have


23


GLOBAL MOBILITY DEMOGRAPHICS


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