Routes


The Russian airspace ban poses a challenge for Western airlines, particularly as carriers outside of Nato are still welcome there.


You only have to return to Flightradar24 to see how chaotic these developments have been. Spanning 11% of the earth’s landmass – and providing crucial links between Europe and Asia – the Russian airspace ban has been terrible news for a number of Western airlines, particularly as carriers outside the Nato orbit are still welcome. And if that disequilibrium naturally brings a sweep of financial challenges, they’re exacerbated by the question of slots. With much of Eurasia now out of bounds, after all, airlines are naturally forced to plot more circuitous paths to their destinations – putting their valuable airport slots, and perhaps even their long-term viability, at serious risk. And with the threat of further geopolitical chaos never far away, similar problems look set to persist.


Up in the air


Stare at Flightradar24 – or indeed an in-flight route map up in the sky – and it’s tempting to imagine that planes are essentially routed as the crow flies: taking the shortest physical route from take-off to landing. But in truth, says John Grant, those lines in the sky vary wildly depending on the conditions. “On no two days does an aircraft take the same routing, or fly at the same height between two destinations,” is how Grant, an analyst at OAG Aviation, phrases it. As he continues, there are plenty of reasons for this variation. One is prevailing winds: it doesn’t make sense to fly against the jet stream when you could catch a ride and arrive early, as often happens when Atlantic storms hit the British coastline. Another factor involves airspace management, with controllers sometimes limiting the number of flights allowed into a given area, doubly so if they lack the staff to keep everyone safe. That’s shadowed by more explicit airspace bans, far from unusual in a world regularly wracked by geopolitical turmoil. Throughout most of the Cold War,


Future Airport / www.futureairport.com


for example, many Western airlines were banned from flying over the Soviet Union. In January 2020, meanwhile, the US prevented national carriers from entering Iraqi or Iranian airspace, after the Islamic Republic launched a missile strike against US forces in the region. In these circumstances, says John Gradek, airlines must “circumvent” the relevant airspace, regardless of what that means for flight time or fuel consumption. And as the aviation expert at McGill University explains – and even a cursory knowledge of geography confirms – the past couple of years have required plenty of circumvention. For Finnair and other Nordic airlines in particular, the 2022 ban on Russian airspace has been hugely disruptive, with Gradek noting that a hypothetical flight to “anywhere in the Far East” now requires a convoluted journey over Poland, Turkey and Central Asia.


Of course, that increases flight times, with Gradek estimating that a Finnair flight to Singapore is now around 90 minutes longer than it was pre-war. It goes without saying, moreover, that delays raise prices. That’s perhaps most clear in terms of fuel – a longer flight means a heftier petrol bill – hardly ideal when it already accounts for up to 40% of an airline’s expenditure. Grant, for his part, points out the increased crew pressures for longer trips. “Whereas perhaps it was a three-man flight deck crew, you now need a four-man flight deck crew,” he says, adding that bigger numbers on one flight can disturb shifts on another. To make matters even worse, both Gradek and Grant highlight that the Russian airspace ban is far from universal. For if Western airlines are forced to avoid the country, rival carriers, from Turkish Airlines to El Al to Emirates, have no such restrictions. “There’s always a winner and a loser,” is how Grant puts it – and it’s no guess who’s losing out right now.


12.6 hrs


The scheduled length of a Finnair flight from Helsinki to Singapore in October 2023.


<12 hrs


The additional length of a March 2023 Finnair flight from Helsinki to Tokyo, up from 9 hours to 13 hours. Finnair


The scheduled length of a Finnair flight from Helsinki to Singapore in 2019.


4 hours 21


flightradar24


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