Transport & logistics
Isabel Ellis speaks with retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, the former commander of US
Army Europe, and David A Shlapak, senior defence researcher at RAND, about how logistical issues contributed to Russia’s failure to capture Kyiv and telegraphed the country’s invasion intentions, granting Ukraine invaluable time to prepare its defence.
Logistics wins wars A
mateurs talk strategy; professionals talk logistics. No one ever mentions a third group, which makes it difficult to classify those who
planned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It’s unclear if they broached either subject.
“When you fail at both, you’re digging yourself a hole that is very, very difficult to get out of once the shooting starts,” says David A Shlapak, senior defence researcher at RAND. “I think that’s the situation the Russians are confronting.” Scarcely a month after crossing the border, they had to withdraw from northern Ukraine. Like so many expensive Russian vehicles, the assault on Kyiv was abandoned at the roadside.
“They seemed totally unprepared, even though they had known for months and months that they were going to be doing this,” agrees retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, the former commander of US Army Europe. He’s as well placed as anyone to update those famous words on logistics, which are usually attributed to Omar Bradley. There are amateur and professional behaviours, but the word Hodges lands on is “criminal”.
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“You have soldiers that have rations that are expired,” he says, incredulous. “Not only is that criminal, but it’s an example of corruption, and a total failure of the chain of command. Who’s doing the quality control? You knew you were going into combat – it’s cold and the weather’s bad – and you send your soldiers with expired rations?” And yet, despite attacking a near-peer neighbour, the Kremlin appears to have believed its ‘special military operation’ wouldn’t involve much combat at all. Shlapak isn’t sure any modern military would succeed at supporting such a large invasion force through the fight Russia is facing, but the Kremlin’s failure to properly prepare has been laid bare for all to see. “I go back to that combined failure of strategy and logistics. At some point it becomes this vicious circle where it’s hard to disentangle the causality from one or the other.” That doesn’t excuse us from trying to do so. Russia has shown how not to conduct a war in the 2020s, which means it is in the best position to learn from its mistakes. Nato forces are susceptible to many of the same ones. They need to take notes.
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