Space operations
Satellites are also vulnerable to attack from earth, an eventuality not covered by any rules currently in place around space warfare.
lieu of a riskier attack on earth. “If they can’t win in space,” he adds, “they’ll expand.” In a similar vein, Stone also says that space warfare can broadly be understood psychologically. If, for instance, China were able to disrupt US satellite communications, it would more easily be able to snatch disputed islands in the South China Sea, taking the initiative and putting its Western rivals on the backfoot.
“On paper, you can try to generate a norm. But from a military standpoint, you have to have the ability to enforce it.”
Christopher Stone
Still, it would be wrong to imply that attacking enemy satellites comes without risks. For starters, Cobb points to the fact that extraterrestrial prowess has, from the early days of the space race, been seen as the place to bolster national prestige, arguably making risky gambles more likely.
£18bn The annual
budget of the US Space Force.
US Space Force 40
That is particularly problematic given the inherent dangers of DA-ASATs. Bomb an enemy airbase and the adjacent town will remain unscathed. But strike an enemy satellite and you could spark a massive chain reaction, annihilating hundreds of machines and leaving lower-orbit space a wreckage- strewn mess. That would make space flight impossible for the foreseeable future – and would destroy global satellite communications. Naturally, agreeing specific rules around space warfare could mitigate these dangers. Yet, as both Stone and Cobb warn, the theatre is lacking here too. In part, this is a question of definition. Both China and Russia push for a ban on weapons in space, notably via a draft treaty often known as PPWT – or the “Treaty on Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space and of the Threat or Use of Force against Outer Space Objects”, as it is in full. But such schemes typically distinguish between weapons ‘in’ space and shooting ‘into’ space – Russian DA-ASATs among them – presumably out of a desire to catch up with sophisticated US programmes. To be fair, the US has
tried promoting non-legally binding norms, hoping to pressure its rivals into playing ball. But as Stone says, that means little without hard power. “On paper, you can try to generate a norm,” he says. “But from a military standpoint, you have to have the ability to enforce it.”
Force the issue
If the prospect of a rules-based extraterrestrial system seems remote – especially in light of broader geopolitical tensions – countries are at least sharpening their defences. The most obvious example here is the US Space Force, a new branch of the US military with a yearly budget of around $18bn. Aside from updating weapons and doctrines, Stone says the space force is also important for prodding allies towards self-reliance. Certainly, it is a point reflected at defence ministries the world over. Founded in 2021, the UK’s Space Command is a joint command organised under the RAF. Among other things, it is working to improve the UK’s space intelligence and reconnaissance capabilities. In Japan, meanwhile, the Space Operations Squadron (JASDF) has recently been mandated to monitor threats to its star-borne hardware.
Programmes like the US Space Force may ultimately bring some order to the cosmos – or possibly create a stalemate where neither side dares attack the other. All the same, the future remains uncertain. And as Cobb implies, that is probably inevitable given the planet’s shifting geopolitical currents. “As countries like China become a greater force on the world stage,” she says, “it makes sense that they too would want to utilise space for all the advantages that countries like the US and Russia have.” At the same time, countries are rushing to boost the effectiveness of their extraterrestrial weapons. Russian DA-ASATs are one thing, but the US is allegedly using Boeing’s X-37 craft to launch secret satellites – and may even be able to zap enemy satellites with microwaves. Of course, what this and similar machines actually do are closely guarded secrets. But given how far space weaponry has come over the past few years, there is very little that would be out of the question. ●
Defence & Security Systems International /
www.defence-and-security.com
Marko Aliaksandr/
Shutterstock.com
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