Space operations
From the end of the Cold War, the US enjoyed virtual supremacy in extraterrestrial affairs. But with the revival of China and Russia as serious powers, space feels like an increasingly plausible theatre of war. Andrea Valentino talks to Christopher Stone, senior fellow for space studies at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, and Dr Wendy Whitman Cobb, associate professor of strategy and security studies at the US Air Force School of Advanced Air and Space Studies, to understand what weaponry is available; the advantages and risks of taking a fight beyond the atmosphere; and why a lack of rules makes space a dangerous place to start a fight.
O
ur planet may currently be obsessed with a very different type of Russian aggression, but late in 2021 – just as Vladimir
Putin’s tanks were rumbling into position near the Ukrainian frontier – Moscow also showed how much danger it could pose far beyond our atmosphere. On 15 November, the country launched a direct- ascent anti-satellite (DA-ASAT) missile, destroying one of the many defunct satellites floating about in orbit. Foreign powers quickly lined up to denounce the test, noting that the resulting wreckage posed risks both to astronauts and space’s general communication infrastructure. US Space Command estimates that the Russian experiment created over 1,500 pieces of trackable debris.
Yet, if the 2021 incident was not bad enough – just one fragment of metal has the potential to wreak havoc on unmanned satellites and space shuttles alike – the precedent it could set is arguably more worrying. While warfare in space has been on the minds of army planners for decades, new technology is making it an increasingly attractive option. More to the point, our globalised planet means a strike in space can cause serious disruption on earth too, damaging communications and hampering intelligence gathering.
As with the risk of nuclear war below the clouds, space battles also have the potential to veer out of control. From space-borne bravado to catastrophic chain reactions, space is a volatile and unpredictable theatre of war. Despite these dangers, however, some of the world’s great powers seem reluctant to decide adequate rules of behaviour, with even non-legally binding norms running into trouble. Not that the situation is completely hopeless. The UK and the US are both investing heavily in new space forces, giving their militaries the tools to at least fight back if the worst happens. Even so, it is clear that space is an increasingly uncertain sphere of
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Defence & Security Systems International /
www.defence-and-security.com
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