Sector Focus: North America | 47
FOR US SOFTWOODS OPPORTUNITIES GLOBAL The global softwood sector is keeping a close eye on evolving
international trade policy, but US softwood suppliers see potential in the market ahead. Sarah Block, consultant for American Softwoods reports
Since hitting record heights in 2021, worldwide sales of American softwood lumber in 2024 totalled US$722m.
Mexico remains the leading foreign market for American softwood lumber, with US exports to the country last year of US$246m, followed by US$160m to Canada. Regionally, Asia (south-east Asia, east Asia and south Asia) is the largest American softwoods export market, with sales in the region totalling US$149m in 2024 against US$155.5m in 2023.
The Caribbean is US softwoods’ second- largest export region, with export values at US$116m in 2024. In 2024, sales to the Dominican Republic surpassed US$67m, while Jamaica and the Leeward Islands also recorded year-on-year growth.
Exports to India more than doubled from US$12m in 2022 to US$26m in 2024. North Africa has been a stable market over the last several years, with 2024 exports standing at US$11.7m.
In US softwood’s domestic market, its key consumer construction sector faces challenges such as rising inflation and a labour shortage. Single-family housing starts declined 10.2% year-over-year as of November 2024, with projections for 2025 ranging between 995,000 to 1.13 million units. However, remodelling and repair spending is expected to increase in 2025, potentially supporting increased lumber demand. Tariffs, if implemented, are expected to impact on global lumber trade. In August 2024, as part of the ongoing softwood lumber dispute between the US and Canada, the US Department of Commerce set a new combined duty rate of 14.54% for most imports of Canadian lumber, nearly doubling the previous rate of 8.05%. The decision was part of the regularly scheduled review process the US employs to ensure adequate relief to American companies and industries impacted by unfair trade practices. Additional tariffs have been threatened, but not yet applied [as of the end of April].
Canada supplies up to 30% of the US’s softwood lumber and Resource Wise analysts estimate that tariffs could eliminate approximately 1.3 billion board feet of lumber from British Columbia to the US. Additional tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber would significantly increase the price of softwood lumber from Canada, and subsequently US house prices and demand. However, many scenarios are possible, including an exemption for softwood lumber and other vital products or no additional tariffs. Following the short introduction of tariffs on almost 60 countries, the White House reversed the decision two days later.
In 2024, Europe accounted for about 6% of US international lumber exports with a value
of US$13.1m. North Africa has been a stable market over the last several years with 2024 exports standing at US$11.7m. Exports to Europe have been on a roller coaster since 2020, with imports surging in 2021 and 2022 but returning to pre-Covid levels in 2024. France has seen steady growth, with sales exceeding US$3.2m in 2024 and early indicators for 2025 suggesting an additional 50% year-on-year growth. The UK market represented US$3.1m in 2024, about the same as 2023, with Italy at US$2.6m down from a peak of US$6.7m in 2022. Southern yellow pine exports increased
21% year-on-year in 2024 with early indicators suggesting further 66% growth in January and February 2025.
Within the EU, the lumber industry has become a focus for European politicians as climate change and biodiversity drive policy. This is ongoing, while geopolitical challenges continue to impact the availability of raw materials. US tariffs are causing uncertainty, forecasting is difficult, this in turn causes unease and stagnation in investment. However, globally, there is optimism within the sector and a general positivity around building with wood. There’s a growing international demand for legally harvested and sustainably managed timber. US softwood, often certified under programmes such as the Sustainable Forestry Initiative (SFI), is well-positioned to meet this demand. There is also optimism about growth in demand from Germany, and the UK government is addressing a huge housing deficit.
Above: Europe accounted for 6% of US softwood exports last year
Raw material availability continues to be an issue, with challenges such as deforestation in Brazil, pest infestations in central Europe, and sanctions on Russian and Belarusian lumber, which have tightened global timber supplies. These constraints present opportunities for US suppliers to fill the gap in international markets – and looking further forward, FAO estimates growth in demand for lumber of 37% by 2050. ■
www.ttjonline.com | May/June 2025 | TTJ
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