| 45
Exports of US hardwood lumber to main European markets 2019-2024
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Source: AHEC analysis of USDA GATS
Other Ireland Spain
Germany Italy UK
Exports of US hardwood lumber to main European markets 2019-2024 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: AHEC analysis of USDA GATS
tropical hardwood lumber were down 14% at only 788,000m3
in 2024, the first time
on record that these have ever fallen below 800,000m3
, only around one-third of the
. Imports of temperate hardwood lumber from countries other than US were 348,000m3
level in 2021 when they exceeded one million m3
. Since then, the war in Ukraine has led to a massive decline in imports from Russia, Ukraine, and other non-EU countries in eastern Europe.
With US export data only available to February this year – and ongoing uncertainty around the Trump administration’s tariff policy – it’s too early to assess market prospects in 2025. The statistics show that exports of US hardwood lumber to Europe in the first two months of this year were 52,200m3
, almost exactly equivalent to the same period in 2024.
Exports to the UK, however, started this year very strongly, at 22,300m3
, 21% up on
the same period last year and accounting for 43% of all US hardwood lumber exports to the European region. The uptick in exports to the UK in the first two months of 2025 –
mainly driven by white and red oak – offset a slow start to the year in Germany, Spain and Italy.
US tariff policy, and the extent to which trade partners retaliate, are a major factor impacting US hardwood trade flows this year. The UK, having been hit with only the baseline 10% tariff on US goods imports and having indicated that it is unlikely to retaliate, is likely to be less affected than other countries.
The situation in the EU is more complicated, although there are reasons to be optimistic that US hardwoods will not be drawn into the wider trade war in the region. The EU voted on April 9 on the first tranche of US products to be subject to 25% retaliatory tariffs in response to US tariffs imposed on EU products. While some US hardwood products were targeted by the EU, the list is much reduced from an original proposal sent out for consultation in March. This followed interventions by AHEC and several European trade associations and buyers to discourage retaliatory tariffs targeting wood products.
According to unofficial analysis by AHEC, products targeted for EU retaliatory tariffs account for only around 10% of the total value of US hardwood primary products imports (logs, lumber, veneer, plywood, mouldings) into the EU. The EU retaliatory list excluded some of the largest US hardwood export items, notably all hardwood logs; all oak lumber; lumber of “other” hardwood species (which covers species such as walnut, tulipwood, and hickory); and thinner veneers. The products included are generally less prominent in US exports to the EU, such as ash, cherry, and maple lumber.
These tariffs were due to be imposed on EU imports starting May16. However, following President Trump’s April 9 announcement of a 90-day delay to the imposition of all US tariffs above a 10% baseline to allow time for negotiations, the EU responded by announcing that their package of retaliatory tariffs would also be delayed. The EU tariffs on the targeted US hardwood products are now scheduled to be imposed from July 16 if no agreement can be reached in ongoing negotiations. ■
Exports of US hardwood lumber to the UK by main timber type, Jan-Feb 2024-25 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
2023 2024 2025
Exports of US hardwood lumber to main European markets 2019-2024 2500
2000 1500 1000 500 0
Source: AHEC analysis of USDA GATS Source: AHEC analysis of USDA GATS Tropical
Other non- tropical
USA
www.ttjonline.com | May/June 2025 | TTJ
1000 cubic meters White Oak Tulipwood Red Oak Ash Walnut Other
1000 cubic meters
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
1000 cubic meters
1000 cubic meters
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
UK Italy
Germany Spain
Portugal Ireland Other
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