Sector Market Update: Softwood | 25
Projected data for 2026 for the top 8 European countries Country
Austria Latvia
Finland Germany
Netherlands Poland Sweden UK
Production 9,700,000
2,500,000 11,400,000 21,250,000 110,000
4,000,000 17,800,000 3,310,000
(Figures from UNECE COFFI November 2025 Geneva)
Exports
6,300,000 2,500,000 8,800,000 7,800,000 529,000 600,000
13,500,000 230,000
Imports 1,500,000
500,000 30,000
3,800,000 3,000,000 630,000 600,000
5,830,000
Consumption 4,900,000
500,000
2,630,000 17,250,000 2,581,000 4,030,000 4,900,000 8,910,000
which 215,000m3 2,936,000m3
was exported. This left for apparent UK consumption,
around 7% more supply than Sweden. The estimated production from British sawmills for 2025 was 3,180,000m3
in 2026, (2,950,000 m3
industry has projected that figure will rise to 3,310,000m3
and the after
exports) covering 33% of the UK’s projected softwood consumption.
The home-grown producers are in the process of promoting C16 structurally graded softwood to sell against imported C24 which is the current default across much of the trade and among specifiers. As a general overview, the projections made for 2024 were fairly accurate and in several cases at the lower end. The UK’s consumption was just over 4.5% up on the industry estimate, Germany was around 5.75% up, and the US consumption up by 7.61% at a volume of 92,493,000m3
, i.e.
67% above the whole of the main European nations combined total of 55,501,000m3
.
To gauge last year’s figures in advance of the next COFFI report in November which will confirm the actual 2025 figures, the ongoing Intrastat data* up until the end of Q3 shows UK imports fell by 2.64% compared to the same period in 2024, this equates to a drop of around 118,000m3
.
The Intrastat data shows that during the first 9 months of 2025, Sweden’s share of UK imports fell by 1% while Latvia’s advanced by 2% and Finland increased market share by 1%. In the same period, both Germany’s and the Irish Republic’s share of Britain’s market dropped by 1% each. Interestingly, within the figures, redwood imports rose against whitewood by almost 7.5% which substantiates reports circulating that more pine is being included in the C24 structural market.
While there is no accurately coded separation between structural grade-stamped and quality-graded softwood, the ratio between pine and spruce through to the end of Q3 last year was approximately 28.5% and 71.5% respectively.
LOOKING FORWARD In spite of a difficult year, the UK softwood trade has shown a degree of resilience to the prevailing difficult economic conditions which have been making the national headlines on a regular basis. Increases in power costs, transport, employment, insurance and bad debts have stretched the resources of many, while they have been dealing with erratic demand in most months coming in below budget.
As January progresses confidence among importers and stockholders remains fragile, and the need for some traders to clear volume is still likely to keep prices subdued for the immediate future.
On the other hand, shippers report that production cuts during the second half of last year has reduced their inventories to a minimum. They also believe shortages will develop in the first half of 2026 and that prices will rise driven by a supply-led market. Other markets in Europe are already paying higher levels than UK buyers, and importers
in other countries such as Belgium, Holland and Germany are increasing volumes in their forward commitments.
While the result of the storms mentioned earlier could yield some extra Swedish fibre for export, the volume of commercially useable sawlogs is unlikely to have any major impact in the overall market. If UK demand stabilises during Q1 and the quay stockholders can keep a tight rein on volumes, then more emphasis can be placed on the forward market. This would enable the export mills to improve production planning and help to keep a better balance between supply and demand.
If these volume controls were to be implemented throughout Q1, then the trade would become more resistant to the knee jerk pricing reactions witnessed last year and establish a higher level of resistance against periods of reduced demand. The last thing any trader wants to face in 2026 is a stock write-down.
*Consolidated and published by TDUK
Above: Treated agricultural poles at Riga, Latvia ready for the UK
www.ttjonline.com | Spring 2026 | TTJ
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