18 | Industry Predictions 2026
FLAT MARKET AND CHANGING TRADE FLOWS IN PANELS …
repair, maintenance and improvement (RMI) markets.
Helen Hewitt, Chief Executive Ofcer, British Woodworking Federation
IMPORTANT POCKETS OF
OPPORTUNITY… As we enter 2026, I’m proud of how the woodworking and joinery manufacturing sector have navigated an evolving trading environment with resilience, and positivity. The Construction Products Association’s State of Trade Autumn Forecast predicts UK construction growth to strengthen this year. However, it’s clear we face one of the toughest trading environments in over a decade, with tightening regulation, sustained weakness in demand, margin pressures, and a slowdown in housebuilding and domestic
Workforce shortages also
remain a pressing issue, with over 240,000 additional workers needed by 2029
TTJ | Spring 2026 |
www.ttjonline.com
That said, there are important pockets of opportunity. High-value commercial refurbishment, specialist projects, and niche fit-outs are showing resilience and point towards a more positive outlook. Supporting members through this landscape remains central to the British Woodworking Federation’s role. We continue to protect members’ interests, raise the profile of the sector, influence standards and regulation, and engage constructively with government to ensure timber’s value is recognised and aligned with future demand. A major milestone of 2025 was Ministerial approval of the Timber in Construction Roadmap, giving our sector a platform to promote the benefits of timber in construction. We are implementing the roadmap’s seven priorities, aligned with the Build It Better with Wood campaign, to turn policy ambition into reality. To support this, 2026 must be a year of demonstrating differentiation in a cautious market. Our Championing Timber in the Home research highlighted the importance of professionalism: 39% of homeowners and 40% of housebuilders value membership of a professional body, while 42% of housebuilders prioritise membership of an industry scheme. BWF membership and adherence to a strict Code of Conduct provide reassurance at a time when confidence is critical. Workforce shortages also remain a pressing issue, with over 240,000 additional workers needed by 2029. In response, the BWF developed Routes to Competence for specialist fire door installers and carpenters and joiners, embedding competence frameworks into Level 2 qualifications. To help future proof our workforce, the BWF is leading more than 30 industry organisations to challenge the Government’s proposed apprenticeship reforms, which would severely weaken our skills system and future workforce. This has already resulted in government pausing changes to the carpentry and joinery apprenticeship, and establishing a dedicated Skills England Task Force, with the BWF representing the construction coalition.
The next 12 months will be pivotal. By working collaboratively, promoting competence, and championing our products, we are well-positioned to build a strong, future for the woodworking and joinery industry
It would be nice to start the new year on a positive note, but 2025 didn’t play out well, and across the sector both here and in Europe, most segments of the panels market have been ‘challenging’ to put it mildly. In many cases output has remained relatively steady but margins have been squeezed. Both public and private housebuilding have been the most difficult.
Looking to 2026, the signs of any significant upturn early in the new year are not looking good. The general sentiment from across the sector is that the market will remain flat with little optimism that there will be any significant improvement in the first half of 2026. The construction sector is suffering and unfortunately there was nothing in the November budget to help the situation. Most at risk are the small to medium sized house builders who aren’t seeing any improvement in sales. All the talk about the Government’s housebuilding targets has just been talk and you might as well consign the 2025 target to the bin. There is concern that the loss of National Timber Group was just the start and there could well be more casualties in 2026. A fire at West Fraser’s site in Cowie in
Alastair Kerr, Director General Wood Panel Industries Federation
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