24 | Sector Market Update: Softwood


TRADE MULLS 2026 PROSPECTS


UK SOFTWOOD


Another year has dawned but what are the prospects for the UK softwood trade? TTJ softwood markets specialist Jerry Wilson looks at current market dynamics


As the UK softwood trade drifted back from the holidays, views were mixed on the opening market situation and the prospects for Q1 of 2026. The New Year return followed an unexpectedly strong month in December for some as a number of merchants witnessed an upturn in demand during the last 4-5 weeks of trading.


Despite harsh winter conditions holding back work on many construction sites at the beginning of January, some softwood importers reported an impetus in demand from their merchant customers due to re- stocking and the need to meet re-scheduled site call-offs being brought forward. Against this improving trend for some, other merchants were struggling for sales, and further up the chain, certain importers were still trying to offload landed stocks by offering below-market prices. These cheap offers had a wider effect across the industry by retarding necessary price increments to improve the value of softwood, which in-turn caused frustration among those suppliers eager to move forward and return to profitability.


From the shippers perspective, production cuts made over the last 6 months combined with improving demand and pricing structures in other markets such as Belgium and Holland, are expected to lead to a supply-driven market and inevitably price rises in the British market towards Q2. On top of production cuts by Scandinavian mills, storms in early January impacted large areas of forest stands. In Sweden, the storm (locally named Johannes), caused large-scale windthrow, with early assessments projecting damages in billions of Kronor (SEK). The areas of Gävleborg, Dalarna and the coastal part of Norrland were the worst hit where an estimated 8 million m3 over.


of logs were blown


The damage was not on the scale of the decimation caused by the storms Gudrun & Per in 2005 and 2007 respectively, but if the figure of 8 million m3


is confirmed, then in TTJ | Spring 2026 | www.ttjonline.com


terms of log yields this could mean that up to 3-4million m3


of unplanned sawn wood


could find its way into the marketplace. This will depend on the salvage condition of the material and accessibility to the effected forest areas.


In Dalarna, most of the windthrow is in redwood (pinus). Forestry officials believe that because the soil was in a moist condition for the time of year rather than frozen, the softer warmer ground offered less resistance to trees being uprooted and dashed to the ground by the strong winds.


The Swedish Forest Agency along with some private companies started surveying the damage by helicopter to plot the scale and location of damaged zones. Storm damaged trees have to be harvested rapidly and moved out of the forests to deter beetle infestations which could spread to standing trees and cause a more widespread hazard.


UNECE STATS


In terms of an overview of softwood supply and demand, the UNECE Committee on Forests & the Forest Industries (COFFI) statistical report was published in late December.


The data in the report provides a wide perspective of global production levels and export volumes including the data for UK softwood imports and consumption. The report includes industry-given estimates for 2025, but these figures will not be confirmed until November of this year. They also contain projections for 2026, but most importantly they contain the collated and confirmed figures for the full year of 2024. According to these figures published by COFFI, the UK imported a total of 5,815,000m3


of softwood in 2024, an increase of 1.55% from 5,726,000m3 in


2023. During that year, Sweden remained Britain’s main offshore softwood supplier shipping 47% of the UK’s imports calculated at 2,733,050m3


. Sweden’s total


production for the year was 17,800,000m3 from which its exports totalled


, 13,760,000m3 , which in-turn means that


the Swedes shipped approximately 20% of their exports in dimensioned softwood to UK buyers.


Latvia was the second largest softwood supplier to the UK in 2024, taking 17% market share at approximately 988,550m3 Latvian exports amounted to 2,804,000m3


. for


the year, with the UK importing 35.25% of Latvia’s global shipped volume. Over the last 5 years, the product make up from Latvian exporters has gradually changed from large cargoes of grade-stamped structural softwood to higher volumes of rounded agricultural poles instead. These basic ungraded products have proved more profitable than KD graded carcassing, and the Latvian timber industry is still paying top prices for its logs from the State Forestry Authority.


This shift in product type is physically evident when touring UK ports, it can easily be seen that the previously laid out carcassing ranges are now filled with agricultural and landscaping timber. Baltic mills are still significant producers of BS5534 roofing battens, but in many cases, they are processing imported Swedish and Finnish kiln dried boards due to a limit of suitable high quality small-knotted spruce volumes available from the local forests. The third main softwood supplier to the UK during 2024 was Finland, whose global exports reached 8,159,000m3 exported 697,800m3


. Finland into the British market


i.e. 8.55% of its export volume. Both Germany and the Irish Republic took a joint fourth place, each taking an 8% share of the UK market at approximately 465,200m3 each. Around 60% of Germany’s production went into its home market, making Germany the largest softwood user in Europe during 2024 with an apparent consumption of 16,473,000m3 2,905,000m3


, supplemented by imports of .


In the same period of 2024, the volume of UK home-produced softwood was approximately 3,151,000m3


, from


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