Industry Predictions 2026 | 15
MODEST GROWTH, BETTER
THAN NONE … Last year saw some of the toughest trading conditions we’ve seen since the financial crash and the impact of this, particularly ending with the collapse of one of the sector’s largest trading groups, will cast a long shadow into 2026.
Nobody will be feeling over-confident going into this year, but there are some positive signs ahead amid the negative gloom. Most of the constituent parts of NTG have now been picked up by other, more stable, trading companies, thankfully saving many jobs in the process. And, it is a sign of the strength of the sector that we’ve seen very few other failures during this period. The lateness of the November budget was one of the main economic drags in the second half of 2025, with multiple false flag announcements causing uncertainty across the economy.
David Hopkins, Chief Executive Timber Development UK
With that out of the way though, the housing market – a key driver for the timber sector - starts the year in a relatively stable position. It may be from a very low base, but we can assume some of the demand that ‘sat it out’ in 2025 will now re-enter the market in 2026. Affordability and mortgage availability is improving with slightly decreasing interest rates, even if confidence is likely to be slower to recover. While this may only point to a gradual increase in transactions, it is an increase nonetheless, with plenty of potential for refurbishments and repairs. The new-build market is also forecast for modest growth under these conditions with timber-frame already taking an increased share. Incoming regulations, such as the Future Homes Standard, favour timber- frame’s superior thermal and carbon performance.
With the Government investing £39bn into the Social and Affordable Housing programme and still banging the (frankly unbelievable) ‘1.5 million homes’ drum, we should see steady housing growth across the country.
However, this assumes the economy doesn’t get blown off course by events beyond its control.
www.ttjonline.com | Spring 2026 | TTJ
With the Government investing
£39bn into the Social and Affordable Housing programme and still banging the (frankly unbelievable) ‘1.5 million homes’ drum, we should see steady housing growth across the country.
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