FLOODS & SUDS
Key factors in forecasting and managing floods in rivers and urban areas
Experts agree that global warming is the main cause of more frequent and intense flooding. According to data published by Oxfam Intermón, the number of disasters caused by floods and droughts in the ten most affected countries has increased dramatically, from 24 in 2013 to 656 in just ten years. In this context, the key to minimizing flood impact lies in proper risk management encompassing the essential phases of mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery.
October 2024 will go down in Spanish history for the devastating effects of unprecedented flooding that affected almost 80 Spanish municipalities. According to the Spanish Home Office, convective rainfall, such as flash flooding, is caused by increased heat on the Earth's surface and has the potential to cause flooding in rivers and urban areas, with devastating consequences for both infrastructure and human life.
Therefore, in situations where speed and precision are essential, “the preparation and response phase must be carried out within strict timeframes to enable crucial decisions to be made”, highlights Sergio Morant, Floodrisk Specialist at Xylem Vue. This is where “Early Warning Systems (EWS) become invaluable allies, operating with maximum precision and efficiency, improving predictive capacity and ensuring effective decision-making, protocol activation and automated responses”.
Forecasting, modelling, automation and coordination
The activation of emergency protocols and plans is based on accurate hydrometeorological information. This involves combining different technologies and sensors that enable real- time monitoring and response. Advanced weather
44 | April 2025 |
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forecasting systems, such as the HARMONIE (AEMET), IFS (ECMWF) and GFS (NOAA) numerical models, predict extreme weather events between two and fifteen days in advance, while nowcasting, based on the use of radar technology and short- term forecasting algorithms, offers high-resolution forecasts in real time and up to three hours ahead. These tools facilitate the early detection of convective phenomena, which is crucial for river and urban flooding management.
Another aspect to factor in when anticipating and managing floods is the use of hydrological and hydraulic models for risk assessment, as Morant outlines. Hydrological models transform rainfall into flow, simulating the impact of runoff in rivers and wastewater networks. In turn, hydraulic models simulate the movement of flows in riverbeds and sanitation networks, interacting with the digital terrain model (DTM), which helps identify flood-prone areas.
Integration with GIS systems provides greater accuracy in the identification of risk areas, where hyperscale plays a crucial role, as it supports scenario modeling from small urban basins to
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