Europe’s travel market Cause for optimism and caution
lower than in the previous two years.” Across Europe, it suggested: “Lower
projections are associated to downside risks: trade war impacts on the global economy, geopolitical tensions, growing concerns around unfolding Chinese economic slowdown, a potential US recession, Brexit and the persistent weakness in the eurozone.” In the circumstances, the ETC concluded:
“The contribution from intra-European demand will become even more significant.” The review offered a conflicting picture
of Europe’s major source markets. It noted: “Half of reporting destinations saw declines in arrivals from Germany in early 2019 data.” Spain was an exception, reporting “a recovery in German arrivals for the first four months of the year following declines in 2018. However, overnights continued to fall.” Of the UK market, it reported: “More than
three-quarters of reporting destinations enjoyed arrivals growth from the UK despite Brexit uncertainty . . . [amid] a clear preference for destinations perceived as price-attractive.” In other source markets: “Two-fifths of
reporting destinations enjoyed some form of growth from France . . . [and] growth from Italy was enjoyed by two-thirds” – a finding the ETC described as “somewhat surprising”, warning: “Recession in Italy may upset outbound travel prospects.”
Pressing concerns There is not scope in this report to cover all the factors likely to affect the industry in the next period. The economy will remain crucial to overall demand. Exchange rates will obviously be a factor. Britain’s exit from the EU could have little
impact or lead to a substantial dislocation and a sharp devaluation of sterling. A last- minute deal could have the opposite effect. The 2018 edition of this report noted
a Financial Times report that “in the event of no deal . . . senior EU officials accept EU
THE CHARTS reflect the growth of holiday lets – fuelled by Airbnb-type platforms – over a 10-year period. Figure 10 shows visitors to all commercial accommodation, Figure 11 visitors to hotels and Figure 12 the number of visitors to holiday lets. The UK and Italy have seen the greatest growth in holiday letting, Germany relatively little
FIGURE 10: EUROPEAN VISITORS, 2008-18
All commercial accommodation: inbound & domestic
million
100 150 200
50 169m 139m 125m 119m 94m 85m 76m 128m
118m 92m
87m 72m 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 FIGURE 11: EUROPEAN VISITORS: HOTELS %
50 60 70 80 90
Hotel share of all European visitors (inbound and domestic) staying in commercial accommodation
85%
79% 78%
84%
82% 82% 80%
79% 76% 76% 82%
81% 78%
73% 69% 81%
80% 77%
66% 59% Source: Eurostat 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
FIGURE 12: EUROPEAN VISITORS: HOLIDAY LETS
%
10 15 20 25 30
Holiday-let share of all European visitors (inbound and domestic) staying in commercial accommodation
26%
France Germany Italy Spain UK
18% 14% 13% 12% 2012 14% 16% 14%
13% 13% 2014
2016 15% 13% 2018
Holiday-let data available only from 2012 Source: Eurostat
81% 76% 80% 71% 71%
79% 79% 73%
69%
France Germany Italy Spain UK
147m 139m 142m
99m 93m 99m 92m
90m 156m
146m 112m
100m 157m 110m
117m 109m
Source: Eurostat
France Germany Italy Spain UK
10 | Travel Weekly Europe Report 2019
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