BUSINESS NEWS


Rick Jones: ‘It’s important to break down [the impact of a recession] by category of consumer, category of spending and probably by region’


How big a squeeze on spending will there be?


Recessionary fears are not the same for all, PwC’s Rick Jones tells Ian Taylor


A difficult autumn and winter are in prospect with an 80% rise in the energy price cap announced last week stoking a general rise in the cost of living. But there remain reasons to be


positive in travel, according to Rick Jones, PwC partner in corporate finance, M&A and refinancing, who is due to speak at Abta’s Travel Convention in Marrakech in October. Jones told Travel Weekly: “Things


are not easy, with large cost increases, but there are enough doomsayers about the industry. People have been locked in unable to travel for two years and are looking for experiences. It’s not that consumers aren’t price-


64 1 SEPTEMBER 2022


sensitive but they’re currently less price- sensitive than maybe one expects.” Consumer sentiment surveys suggest


“consumers are very sensitive and turning off all spending taps”, he said. “But you see from the spending data that is not what they’re doing. Employment is high and that drives spending, and savings are also quite high.” The Bank of England has forecast


the UK will slide into recession in the fourth quarter of this year and will remain so through all of 2023. Jones said: “It’s a dynamic situation


and particularly difficult now. We don’t have the new prime minister yet and the perceived gap in decision- making is also leading to a drop in


confidence. It’s a contested election and you’d think we could take two different paths. That exacerbates the confusion. “The new PM will need to


take decisions quickly on how the government can help both consumers and businesses in a way that is fiscally responsible.” He noted housing costs will also


increase and a recession could impact on job security, stressing: “Housing and job security are both very important.” But he argued: “It’s important to break down the impact of any


Continued on page 62 travelweekly.co.uk


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