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The gradual return of people to offices and hospitality and tourism industries slowly increased demand for gasoline and diesel, meaning higher oil refinery throughputs and greater availability of feedstocks for base oils. Consequently, prices for base oils started to come down towards the end of 2021. However, prices for Group III base oils continued to be higher than for Group I and II base oils, probably due to a tighter supply/demand balance.
It is also interesting to observe that prices in Western Europe and Asia for Group II base oils have occasionally been the same as or lower than those for Group I base oils. However, prices for Group III base oils are generally higher than for either Group I or Group II base oils, but not always much higher, and are generally higher in Western Europe compared to Asia. This is because there is greater demand for Group III base oils in Western Europe, although this is likely to start to change in the future, as Asian and North American markets continue to require more lubricants with higher performance requirements. Also, unsurprisingly, prices for Group II+ base oils are intermediate between those for Group II and Group III base oils.
As more motorists and fleet owners buy more electric and hybrid vehicles, demand for gasoline and diesel fuels is likely to begin to decline, particularly in Western Europe, Asia and North America. More online purchasing and increased use of electric delivery vans is also likely to reduce demand for gasoline and diesel. Some of the reduction in demand for diesel for cars, trucks and buses may be offset by increased demand for low sulphur fuels for ships. However, reductions in demand for transportation fuels is likely to mean lower refinery throughputs, leading to reductions in feedstocks for base oils and higher prices for base oils and lubricants in the future.
All of these forecast changes are likely to occur comparatively slowly, as the world switches from internal combustion engines to (eventually) battery powered vehicles and electricity powered machines. Pathmaster Marketing’s forecast of the global market for cars is that electric and hybrid cars will still only be around 50% of the total number of cars by the end of 2035. Electric buses and delivery vans will be introduced more rapidly. For example, Tesco, the UK’s largest food retail company, recently announced that its fleet of 2000 delivery vans will be all electric by 2028.
16 LUBE MAGAZINE NO.169 JUNE 2022
The performance properties of Group II and Group III base oils are different from those of Group I base oils. Group II base oils have lower sulphur contents than Group I base oils and they provide a better response to anti-oxidant additives. They also have lower contents of aromatic hydrocarbons, so they are more oxidatively stable than Group I base oils. However, they have poorer solvency properties, so additives or blending components are need to correct their ability to dissolve additives and degradation products. Also, Group II base oils are not available yet in brightstock type viscosity grades. Greater amounts of Group II base oils are being used in many types of improved performance automotive and industrial lubricants.
Group II+ base oils have similar sulphur and aromatics contents to Group II base oils, but have higher viscosity indices, so their rate of change of viscosity with temperature is better. However, their viscosity indices are lower than those of Group III base oils and the range of viscosity grades is narrower than for Group II base oils.
Group III and III+ base oils have the lowest sulphur contents and the highest paraffinic contents compared to other mineral base oils, so they have excellent oxidative and thermal stability properties. Many Group III and III+ base oils are almost completely iso-paraffinic in composition. However, they have the poorest solvency properties of the mineral base oils, so these need to be corrected using additives or blending components, such as esters or alkyl naphthalenes. They have very high viscosity indices, but are not available in viscosity grades above 10 cSt at 100ºC.
Assuming that there is likely to be a declining availability of feedstocks for manufacturing Group I, II and III base oils at the same time there is an increasing demand for higher performance lubricants, consideration should be given to the future roles of re-refined and bio-based base oils. These, and other synthetic base oils, may need to make up for any future shortage of mineral oil base oils.
The latest types of re-refined base oils often have better properties than virgin Group I base oils. Some can even be marketed as Group II, II+ or III quality and so priced accordingly. With an increasing emphasis on sustainability and the circular economy, more attention is going to be paid to re-use and re-cycling. This will apply to lubricants as well as everything else,
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