REGULATION Brexit David Wright, UKLA Director General
The advent of a general election on 12th December in the United Kingdom has brought Brexit preparations to a temporary halt, but not the debate.
There are three possible outcomes from the election that will have a bearing on the steps the United Kingdom takes next regarding its departure from the United Kingdom.
If the Conservatives win an outright majority in December, they will immediately go to a departure from the European Union by the end of January 2020 at the latest. At the time of writing the Conservatives have a ten point lead over the next biggest party, Labour, in the polls at 36 points to 26 points respectively, according to pollsters YouGov. However as we saw in the general election of 2017, ten point advantages for one party can quickly evaporate away under the spotlight of a hard fought campaign.
If the Labour party win an outright majority then they will go to a second referendum of the British people on the terms of a new deal they would have negotiated with Brussels. The Labour party referendum would ask the British people whether they would accept the terms of a new deal, or remain in the European Union. Leaving on a ‘no deal’ basis would not be an option. Included in the terms of a new Labour government deal negotiated with the European Union would be continuing membership of a customs unions, and protection of worker’s rights.
The third largest party by voter support, but not the number of seats, is the Liberal Democrats on 17 points. Commonly called the Lib Dems, the party is staunchly pro-Europe.
If they won an outright general election, they would immediately rescind notice under Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty and seek to remain in the European Union.
Due to the current electoral system of first past the post, being the party with the highest number of votes wins the seat, it is unlikely that the Lib Dems will win an outright majority. Unlike the two other main parties, Lib Dem votes are more evenly spread across the country.
The votes of the larger parties are more concentrated in key areas. Labour in the north and inner cities, Conservatives in the south and the suburbs.
Elections are fought and won not on all the parliamentary seats but on key marginals sometimes referred to as ‘swing seats. There are 97 seats out of 650 available which were won with a majority of 5% or less for any single party. This is where the key battles for voters will be fought, in the so-called target seats.
The third possible outcome could be for another hung Parliament where a minority Government without a majority of seats, attempts to govern through a coalition with a smaller party. This is currently the case where a minority Conservative government has formed an alliance with the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland on a confidence and supply basis.
If this happens we will simply be back to where we were pre December 12th when provaracation in Parliament to agree the terms of a deal or leave without one is undermining consumer and business confidence to ‘get the job done’ and provide certainty to both the United Kingdom and that of the European Union.
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LUBE MAGAZINE NO.148 DECEMBER 2018
LUBE MAGAZINE NO.154 DECEMBER 2019
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