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ANALYSIS


Future mobility: what it could look like (and why it may not happen)


Peter Tjan, EECPA – European Energy & Climate Policy Advisors


Future mobility is a topic attracting significant attention at the moment. In virtually every country across the developed world current transport systems are burdened by many problems. Growth in goods transport, increased demand for personal mobility, deficient and costly public transport alternatives and poor road planning and maintenance put a severe strain on peoples’ ability to move around quickly, efficiently and cost effectively. It adds to an already unsustainable level of congestion, affecting air quality and increasing CO2


emissions.


There is a significant risk that in the years to come we may reach the point where at times nothing will be moving (a “traffic infarct”). Therefore solutions are needed and these are likely to rely on the development of: • IT systems to optimise vehicle use, link various transport modes and reduce congestion,


• propulsion systems that are less polluting and rely on zero-carbon fuel alternatives,


• improved road infrastructure better adjusted to changing transport systems and needs.


In addition it may also require significant changes in behaviour and life-style.


36 LUBE MAGAZINE NO.146 AUGUST 2018


It is clear that these changes will not come easily and only at a significant cost, but they are necessary to avoid the huge economic impact of an “immobile” economy. These changes require a clear vision of the authorities on how the future system would operate and how it should be implemented. It will therefore require: • the development of a clear long term transport vision


• a realistic transition plan that will limit costs and avoid regret investments wherever feasible,


• clear allocation of roles among the many stakeholders that will need to facilitate and implement the planned changes, including industry, local, regional, national and supra-national authorities and users, • adequate (public) funding.


Today, personal transport requirements are driven by the need of family members to travel to work, school or leisure destinations during a limited time window, shared by many other travellers. This leads to the accumulation of traffic movements in a short time frame and by vehicles of which the dimensions (weight and size) are less appropriate for significant sections of the journey. Also, the vehicles will often spend the majority of the day unused and parked in a public area. Continued on page 38


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