GEOPOLITICS
Fortunately, there is a very useful rule of thumb to guide companies on whether continuing travel to a destination is reasonable or not. “We always say: keep an eye on what the embassies are doing,” says David Holley, director of the consultancy HP Risk Management. “The UK embassy has not pulled out of Pyongyang and the US embassy has not pulled out of Seoul. Therefore, companies are justified in thinking they can send people there.”
EUROPE More terror attacks in European cities must be anticipated in 2018. Crime-wise, be aware of repeated muggings of travellers gathered outside Paris airport hotels. Politically, key risks include Brexit. Leaving aside how an UK-EU deal, or lack of one, might affect trade, and consequently business travel, direct concerns include whether unimpeded travel will continue across the UK/Ireland border and the UK will retain access to the single European aviation market. For now, there is little sign of sterling strengthening in 2018 to pre-referendum levels, which will keep foreign travel costs for UK businesses high. Elsewhere in Europe, the Catalonian independence crisis will continue into 2018, and watch out for a highly unpredictable election
in Italy, where far-right and anti- establishment parties could thrive in an atmosphere unsettled once again by the malign influence of fake news. The World Cup in Russia may
also prove problematic for visiting football teams and supporters with its potential for terror attacks and diplomatic incidents, and recriminations which may flare before, during or after the tournament.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA The extent to which President Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital could undermine security in the Middle East will be closely watched. Foreign & Commonwealth Office travel advice for Israel has already changed. Another headache in an always complicated region is the intensifying struggle for dominance between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The two have locked horns through proxy conflicts and crises in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and even Qatar. For regular business travellers, the biggest problem has been the closure of air and sea routes between Qatar and several Gulf states. Could matters get more complicated? “We are forecasting a prolonged stand-off but we haven’t seen an escalation where they are saying, ‘Either you do business with us or you do business with them,’”
says Hecker. “That would change business travel patterns.” Saudi Arabia and Iran are both major oil producers and their relationship will be one of several risk factors determining the price of oil in 2018. Both put aside differences to reach consensus within OPEC countries and with Russia in November 2017 on extending capacity limits, first agreed in November 2016, to the end of 2018. The oil price has risen in consequence, but Russia especially is anxious to prevent huge increases that could stimulate new production in the US. In summary, the price will probably rise, but not drastically. But even if the price of oil goes up, independent security consultant William Sandover says airline fuel surcharges may not result. “Such is the competition in air travel that airlines will take the hit on their profits,” he says.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA The economic development of Africa is an under-reported success story, albeit with China, rather than the West, being the main beneficiary. Control Risks cites Kenya, Ethiopia and Mozambique as up-and-coming markets. “These are all places where business travel is possible provided you make the effort to understand them before you go and take sensible precautions,” says Hecker.
Hazard warnings required
SEVERAL BRITS WERE BEWILDERED to find themselves thrown into jail during 2017 after allegedly unknowingly committing offences in the countries they were visiting. A shop assistant from Hull was imprisoned for entering Egypt carrying 290 Tramadol tablets she claimed were for her Egyptian husband. In Dubai, a man from Stirling was imprisoned on suspicion of public
BUYINGBUSINESSTRAVEL.COM
indecency after he inadvertently brushed his hand against another man’s hip in a bar. A man from Edinburgh was incarcerated, also in Dubai, for handing over what proved to be a fake Scottish £20 note at a bureau de change. Other behaviour
deemed normal elsewhere but illegal in Dubai – a common business travel destination – includes homosexuality, sex outside marriage and, as of 2017,
expressing sympathy for near-neighbour Qatar. Numerous familiar medicines, including assorted sleeping and slimming pills, especially in large quantities, are also proscribed.
All the above makes Dubai a classic example of why briefing employees before business trips is so important. Armed with the right information, travellers should be able to enjoy a trouble-free visit.
BBT January/February 2018 97
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