14 NATCHEZ ON THE WATERFRONT
When is a trend a trend? T
By Dan Natchez*
he question of when a trend becomes a trend all depends on who you ask and at what point you ask.
In my humble experience, there is no one answer or necessarily correct answer. For example, back around
February, March and April, boat manufacturing and sales pretty much world-wide were hit hard by the pandemic. Manufacturing plants were shutting down, dealer sales falling, people were being furloughed, marinas were shut down, businesses were struggling to pay their bills and stay afloat, and the forecasts were doom and gloom. People who could were working from home (and many still are). Public gatherings were being shut down as were schools. Many businesses had closed, with some not having the ability to recover. Marine enterprises, along with almost every other industry, were clamouring that they were essential and seeking financial assistance or at least an easing of
the restrictions. Then, governments started to alleviate pressure on companies by developing schemes to help them not only survive, but begin to move forward – marinas were mostly deemed essential and boating an activity that fitted well into safe, socially-distanced recreation. So, by the Summer, boating
was taking off like a rocket and providing a lifebuoy for those needing to get outside, have fun and do something that they enjoyed – primarily with the family as social-distancing had become the new normal. My article in the October, 2020, issue of Marina Industry discussed this phenomenon. So, in this case, the trend in the
Spring was quite different from the trend last Summer and predictions of what might happen in the Winter really depends on whose crystal ball one is looking into. Will there be new spikes or lockdowns or will there be a continuation of the current more or less status quo?
Assuming unemployment remains fairly high, one might want to keep an eye on repossession rates as just one indicator of where things are heading in the next six to 12 months. From the fly deck, it is my opinion that one ultimately needs to take a longer view over time to see what the more fundamental trends have been and are. The past is relatively easy to analyse with 20/20 hindsight vision. The trend has been moving away from all-wood boats towards aluminum, steel, fibreglass and composites, with newer carbon fibre and similar materials entering the arena. Today’s leisure craft have more finishing accoutrements than ever before and the electronics and wiring associated with boats can easily be more involved than many houses. Over time, boating has become
more performance-driven. In many ways, it is following the motor industry with accessories and performance designs. Boating has become much more expensive from the entry level on up. At the same
time, the average age of boaters keeps trending higher, with sharp declines in the younger generations coming into boating.
Future trends So what do the trend curves suggest will emerge in the future? There is no question that boats
are still getting longer and wider, and are being provided with more and more creature comforts. I would suspect that this trend will continue, but it is also increasing the price and complexity. Unlike cars, there are relatively few entry level-priced boat models. The increased complexity can also prove somewhat daunting, both in terms of figuring it all out and the cost in time and money to maintain it. Many believe that the total cost and complexity of boating are contributing reasons for the younger generations either not getting into boating at all or at least not until reaching much older ages when they feel they can afford the luxury and, perhaps, have more time.
MARINA INDUSTRY • FEBRUARY 2021
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