The SCR Chambers: East Midlands
East Midlands Chamber (Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire)
T: 0333 320 0333 E:
info@emc-dnl.co.uk W:
www.emc-dnl.co.uk Twitter: @EMChamberNews
The Chamber is the largest business representation organisation in the East Midlands. With a growing membership of more than 4,300 businesses, it represents the interests of businesses across Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire and Leicestershire.
The calm between the storms
Chris Hobson (pictured), Director of Policy and External Affairs at East Midlands Chamber (Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire and Leicestershire), reflects on the findings of the Q1 Quarterly Economic Survey for the Sheffield City Region and the picture they painted ahead of the coronavirus crisis.
profound impact it has had on the UK’s economy in just a few short weeks. However, when the fieldwork for Q1’s
T
Quarterly Economic Survey for the Sheffield City Region was taking place, the economy found itself in something of a sweet spot. It was starting to emerge from the three-
and-a-half year Brexit impasse, but the shocks caused by Covid-19 had yet to land. So, at the time this survey was taken, the
full extent of potential coronavirus implications for business were not yet understood. Many businesses were also starting the year with an increased sense of certainty and optimism following a decisive General Election victory for the Conservatives in December 2019, and the UK’s formal exit from the European Union at the end of January. It’s obvious that the conditions businesses were operating in then and the sentiment they felt towards their prospects have now changed. However, examination of the Q1 results does give a flavour of where businesses were in terms of their preparedness and resilience, as well as some of the early issues which were beginning to emerge as the coronavirus started to have an impact.
he coronavirus crisis seems to have been with us for a lot longer than it actually has been, especially given the
It’s highly likely that the figure for Q2 will
be significantly higher, with firms not necessarily starting from a strong base in terms of cashflow when the coronavirus lockdown restrictions came into play, and then weakening once this started to bite. This underlines the importance of the
‘These figures suggested a
confidence in the economy’
relatively decent level of
Chancellor’s measures to support cashflow issues for organisations impacted by coronavirus. With regards to business activity, the survey found that the domestic market was particularly strong, with 42% of respondents reporting an increase in UK sales and 34% an increase in overseas activity. Future orders (for Q2) in both the domestic and export markets were also up, by 26% and 20% respectively. In terms of investment intentions, 21% revised these upwards for capital projects and 26% upwards for training. As businesses examine the wider impact of any slowdown on their business models, it is essential for the UK economy that these figures remain robust. In doing so, this will also
support businesses to
continue to transition towards new ways of working where
they can – for example – invest in IT to increase remote working options,
and in training to strengthen areas of management and broaden staff abilities to respond to shifting demands. Perhaps the most interesting indicators
So, what are the headlines? One of the biggest concerns for many SCR businesses in Q1 was cashflow. Although this fluctuated throughout 2019, it was linked closely with
stockpiling ahead of a series of proposed exit dates for leaving the EU which never came to pass. These issues receded at the end of 2019, but returned in Q1, with 21% of
respondents saying their cashflow situation had deteriorated.
among all the findings were the ones relating to sentiment. Over half the businesses (54%), were expecting their turnover to improve over the coming year, while 50% were also expecting their profitability to improve. Given the uncertainties of 2019, these
figures suggested a relatively decent level of confidence in the economy. However, the length and severity of the disruption caused by the Government’s coronavirus interventions will be key in seeing how businesses feel come Q2’s survey, when fieldwork opens in June.
Spring 2020 CHAMBERconnect 39
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