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FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS by Marc Chandler


FX


April Global Currency Outlook


Poor economic data and soft inf lation saw several central banks, including the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, take a dovish turn in March. Contrary to expectations that interest rates would rise as the G3 central banks were no longer adding to their balance sheets on a combined basis. The sharp drop in interest rates and the flattening of curves in March is one of the key factors shaping the investment climate.


The fall in yields has occurred even as oil prices have climbed, with supply disruptions more than offsetting demand concerns.


As the first quarter drew to a


close, there were some preliminary signs that many of the largest economies may be stabilizing from what we suspect will be shown to be a soft patch during a late part of the expansion cycle. We expect the Federal Reserve will try to


cool the rate cut fever and firm data help this effort. The low point for Europe may be passing, but the recovery looks tentative. Spain holds national elections late in the month, and Spanish assets underperformed in March perhaps partly in anticipation.


The US-China trade talks will likely continue through most if not all of Q2, and in the meantime, China tax cuts, other


FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2019 7


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