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FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS


exchange exposures, who have not been paying attention, are forced into trading decisions, thereby extending and amplifying the impact. As we have argued before, we nearly all have such exposures, although how keenly we recognise them varies greatly.


What does this mean for Sterling? Previously I wrote about this scenario, terming it a 'Rally of Betrayal' and suggesting we could see the pound rise to £1.35-£1.40 against the US dollar.


Although that strength only holds until the fury of the baffled, frustrated, is


unleashed


weary on


the


electorate Tory


administration. Although as ever the timing of the day of reckoning remains uncertain.


That view was all predicated on Corbyn keeping his poise, holding his fractious party together and gaining from the shambles of the Tory leadership.


The subsequent Labour issues, with both their tolerance for a noisy minority peddling anti-Semitism and indeed their own split over Europe, perhaps makes


the great socialist revival a little less likely. But there is much dissatisfaction in


So if all currencies are now pigs, which one would you kiss?


I suspect there will be an element of randomness here, and as we are


FX


these isles aimed predominantly at those that govern us. Tat is not a good long term development. For all the false dawns of realignment we have lived through, I sense the cracks really are deepening this time.


Yet for now I suspect Sterling will hold its gains and we may well see a period of consol idat ion around £1.40.


We should not forget either the odd stability and fiscal responsibility of


destined to be forever more European, our politics may well morph into something rather similar: numerous parties, coalitions, and (more) extended periods of no effective government.


And actually seeing how our representatives work, rather cynically, that may not be a bad thing for a while.


At the same time the real threat to Sterling, of a 1970's style socialist government, has we feel been reduced. Te Labour Party, oddly strengthened by those defecting MP's, still has a serious core that can fight, even if only intermittently, for some version of sanity and responsible opposition.


this Chancellor.


Virtue is unpopular, as it oſten is, and two faced, as it is prone to be, but the years of if not quite austerity, then at least restraint, are lengthening. Te day we might actually stop fresh borrowing, quixotic and brief though that dawn will be, slides gently closer.


Te Euro as we know has its own problems. It remains a liability currency in my view.


Te Sterling Euro rate of 1.25+ would then also seem a reasonable result, if indeed the pound moves up against the dollar.


Howard Jones Investment Bulletin


RJMG Wealth Management FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2019 23


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