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CURRENCY WATCH


June 2019 from February 2019, still within the volatile, medium- term outlook [1.2445 – 1.4225] through September 2019. We are forecasting a subsequent rally to 1.4565 through March 2020 in the resulting higher subsequent long- term outlook [1.3660 – 1.5025] through mid-2020. Only a monthly close back below 1.2480 (yielding 1.1985 weak long-term support over two months) or a monthly close back above 1.3660 (resulting in a rally to 1.4770 strong long-term resistance over four months) would alter our broad, neutral/bullish medium-term outlook.


NOTE: EUR/GBP – Monthly close below the .8620 previous medium- term objective for November 2018; now .8380 in lower [.8255 - .8840] through September 2019.


USD/JPY USD/CHF


Aſter the rally from 104.55 in March 2018 through the 111.40 July 2018 objective to the 113.40 critical monthly close produced strong complex medium-term divergences, the forecast subsequent decline shy of 104.30 for February 2019 alleviated the strong medium-term divergences. We are forecasting only a weak further retest of 112.15 in April 2019, then lower again to 107.75 through August 2019, still within the broad, choppy medium-term consolidation [ 104.30 – 113.40] through December 2019.


Only a monthly close still below 104.30 (reigniting bearish medium- term momentum and resulting in a decline to retest 100.20 over a month) or a monthly close still above 113.40 (resulting in a strong retest of 118.60 over two months) would alter the mixed, neutral/bearish medium- term outlook.


NOTE: Strong decline in EUR/ JPY to 118.65 produced strongest medium-term divergences in three years; we are forecasting a retest of


137.50 through September 2019 in a tighter medium-term outlook [123.40 – 137.50] into January 2020.


USD/CHF


I am sorry to again state one of my strongest beliefs about the currency market; that the Swiss Franc remains the bellwether, proactive currency. Indicative of the forecast waning bullish long-term momentum in the U.S. Dollar, USD/CHF rallied to the 1.0110 November 2017 objective,


FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2019 13


FX


USD/JPY


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