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CURRENCY WATCH


FX


February 2020. Only a monthly close back below 1167 (nudging medium- term momentum back to neutral/ bearish and commence a decline to retest 1088 over the subsequent four months) or a monthly close still above 1356 (commencing the rally to 1525) would alter the neutral/bullish medium-term outlook through the third quarter of 2020.


OIL OIL


BITCOIN/USD GOLD


Te inverse relationship between Gold and the U.S. Dollar is one of the few correlations between asset classes that remains mostly intact during this disjointed global period in the markets. Our long-term bearish outlook for Gold since May 2012 culminated with the decline to the 1044.55 ongoing long-term objective for Gold in December 2015.


Aſter the forecast rally from 1238


to the 1374 March 2018 objective leſt medium-term techs eroding in neutral, we have completed the forecast decline to retest 1261 for August 2018. We continue to forecast a very gradual further retest 1352 through May 2019, still within the broad, medium-term consolidation view [1167 – 1355] through August 2019. We continue to stress that this consolidation is the final formation of the long-term bottom for Gold for a relatively shallow rally


to 1525 through


(Aſter the rally from 42.35 through the 69.20 medium-term objective for April 2018 to 72.85 produced weak complex long-term divergences and leſt neutral/bullish medium-term momentum waning back to neutral, the strong decline through the 58.10 medium-term corrective objective for December 2018 to retest 42.35 also produced weak complex medium- term divergences but also neutral/ bearish medium-term momentum. We continue to forecast the weak retest of 64.40, out to April 2019 from March 2019, still within the broad, neutral medium-term outlook through the third quarter of 2019 [42.05 – 64.40]. Only a monthly close back below 42.05 (resulting in a decline to 34.70 over three months) or a monthly close back above 64.25 (resulting in a rally to retest 75.25 over three months) would alter the mixed, neutral medium-term outlook for the next six months.


Te impact of the price of Crude Oil on other assets has varied and diverged


FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2019 15


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