FX CURRENCY WATCH
and, simultaneously, the EUR/CHF rallied from 1.0960 to the 1.1790 medium-term objective. Te failure to close above both USD/CHF at 1.0110 as well as EUR/CHF at 1.1790 in December 2017 were the clear indications that the final, last gasp rally in the long-term U.S. Dollar had taken place.
Aſter the forecast decline from the 1.0010 August 2018 objective to
.9660 forecast for November 2018 leſt the medium-term technicals and momentum neutral/bearish, we continue to forecast the subsequent decline to .9445, out to August 2019 from February 2018, in a still neutral/ bearish medium-term outlook [.9445 – 1.0040] through October 2019. As in the last five quarterly outlooks, only a monthly close below .9445 in USD/CHF (resulting in an 8% decline to .8705) would confirm the
commencement of the broader Dollar decline through late 2019.
NOTE: EUR/CHF failed the 1.1790 medium-term objective for November 2017and completed the forecast retest of 1.1215 for November 2018. Te monthly close in March 2019 below 1.1185 is a precursor to further CHF strength against both the USD and EUR. We are forecasting a 4% decline to 1.0710 strong long-term support
through September 2019,
exacerbating the decline in the U.S. Dollar.
USD/RUB USD/RUB GOLD 14 FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2019
After the yearlong decline to 55.70 into April 2017 produced strong complex medium-term divergences just shy of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, the sideways 6% consolidation throughout the first quarter of 2018 alleviated most of the divergences. We have completed the forecast rally to retest 66.50 for September 2018, and now we are forecasting a weak rally to retest 68.55, down sharply from 71.85, through June 2019, still within a broad, 12% consolidation range [62.20 – 69.95] through September 2019. Only a monthly close back above 71.60 (reigniting bullish medium-term momentum and beginning an 8% rally to 77.45 over two months) or a monthly close below 62.20 (yielding 55.60 over two months) would alter the choppy, neutral, medium-term outlook.
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