search.noResults

search.searching

dataCollection.invalidEmail
note.createNoteMessage

search.noResults

search.searching

orderForm.title

orderForm.productCode
orderForm.description
orderForm.quantity
orderForm.itemPrice
orderForm.price
orderForm.totalPrice
orderForm.deliveryDetails.billingAddress
orderForm.deliveryDetails.deliveryAddress
orderForm.noItems
MACROECONOMICS


a tariff on the remaining imports from China is not clear. China is likely to make more concessions, and there is some low hanging fruit. At the same time, it is clear that the problem is more in China's operational policy than declaratory policy - what it does rather than what it says.


In 2019, the US will also turn its trade attention to Europe and Japan. Previous Administrations ex p r es se d various levels of frustration over the years with European and Japanese trade practices. The tensions were constrained by the Cold War and WTO. H o w e v e r , this administration has little time for ideological rivalries and is primarily interested in economic competition. In this sense, we have suggested that Trump is the first post-Cold War president. Despite a new trade agreement between the US, Canada,


and Mexico,


which appears to be mostly the old NAFTA plus some modernizing elements that had been negotiated


in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (from which the US withdrew) and enhanced domestic content rules, Canadian and Mexican steel and aluminum continue to face tariffs on national security grounds.


The World Trade Organization itself is under threat. On the one


FX


appeal. This will slow things down and bring them to a halt one has to recuse themselves. The issue will come to a head as the term of two of these judges is over at the end of 2019. Studies of WTO decisions finds the US wins more than 80% of the cases it


better than most countries and brings


cases as well.


The US withdrawal from the


Iran Treaty


speaks to the increased element of American un i l a t er a l ism rather


isolation. In addition to


Bloomberg survey median forecast is for the US economy to expand by 2.4% annualized pace in H1 19 before slowing toward 2.1% in H2


hand, the Trump Administration argues that the rules are not designed for non-market economies like China. On the other hand, it is blocking the appointment of appellate judges, without which the important conflict resolution mechanism breaks down. There are normally seven judges, but it’s now down to three, which is the minimum for a panel to hear an


than the


balance of power politics in the region, between Israel and Iran, and


Iran and


Saudi Arabia, the US decision impacts foreign


companies who also do business in the US, and this includes SWIFT, the international payments platform. While some commercial ties are disrupted, the fact that Belgium-based SWIFT will respect the embargo is particularly frustrating for Europe, who chafe under what Business Week recently called the Tyranny of the Dollar. The increased weaponization of


FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2019 9


initiates, which is the most


Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24  |  Page 25  |  Page 26  |  Page 27  |  Page 28  |  Page 29  |  Page 30  |  Page 31  |  Page 32  |  Page 33  |  Page 34  |  Page 35  |  Page 36  |  Page 37  |  Page 38  |  Page 39  |  Page 40  |  Page 41  |  Page 42  |  Page 43  |  Page 44  |  Page 45  |  Page 46  |  Page 47  |  Page 48  |  Page 49  |  Page 50  |  Page 51  |  Page 52  |  Page 53  |  Page 54  |  Page 55  |  Page 56  |  Page 57  |  Page 58  |  Page 59  |  Page 60  |  Page 61  |  Page 62  |  Page 63  |  Page 64  |  Page 65  |  Page 66  |  Page 67  |  Page 68  |  Page 69  |  Page 70  |  Page 71  |  Page 72  |  Page 73  |  Page 74  |  Page 75  |  Page 76  |  Page 77  |  Page 78  |  Page 79