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CURRENCY WATCH


long-term momentum in the U.S. Dollar, USD/CHF rallied to the 1.0110 November 2017 objective, and, simultaneously, the EUR/CHF rallied from 1.0960 to the 1.1790 medium- term objective. The failure to close above both USD/CHF at 1.0110 as well as EUR/CHF at 1.1790 in December 2017 were the clear indications that the final, last gasp rally in the long- term U.S. Dollar had taken place. We are in the forecast decline


from the 1.0010 August 2018 objective to .9660 originally forecast for November 2018. We continue to forecast the subsequent decline to .9445, out to February 2019 from December 2018, in a still neutral/bearish medium-term outlook [.9445 – 1.0040] through May 2019. As in the last four quarterly outlooks, only a monthly close below .9445 in USD/CHF (resulting in a decline to .8705) would confirm the


commencement of the


FX


broader Dollar decline through late 2019.


NOTE: EUR/CHF failed the 1.1790 medium-term objective for November 2017; retest of 1.1215 for November 2018 complete; still broad [1.1185 – 1.1790] into May 2019.


USD/RUB


After the yearlong decline to 55.70 into April 2017 produced strong complex medium-term divergences just shy of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, the sideways


6%


consolidation throughout the first quarter


of 2018 alleviated USD/RUB


most of the divergences. We have completed the forecast rally to retest 66.50 for September 2018, and no longer forecast a retest of 62.90. We are forecasting a weak further rally to 71.85 into February 2019, still within the very broad, 14% consolidation range [58.45 – 71.80] through May 2019. Only a monthly close back above 71.60 (reigniting bullish medium-term momentum and beginning an 8% rally to 77.45 over two months) or a monthly close below 62.40 (yielding 58.15 over two months) would alter the volatile, neutral, medium-term outlook.


GOLD GOLD


The inverse relationship between Gold and the U.S. Dollar is one


FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2019 21


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