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FX MACROECONOMICS


access to the dollar rather than the "currency wars" over nominal foreign exchange levels, which captures the imagination of analysts and journalists, is an increasingly i mp o r ta n t exercise of US financial statecraft and projection of power but fuels a desire for an alternative.


The US has not reached "peak oil." Output is projected to rise in 2019. Exports may reach two million barrels a day. The simple geological fact of the existence of shale fields does not explain very much. Instead, the US


carbon bans fracking.


To the extent that financing was achieved based on the value of the collateral (the price of the shale


goods orders, and manufacturing, should be anticipated to be a headwind on the economy in H1.


The oil embargo against Iran and the signals from the Administration that it would not look favorably on exemptions saw oil prices reach four-year highs at the start of Q4 18 only to collapse when six- month waivers were grants to Iran's


largest


" r e v o l u t i on" is driven by technolog ica l change, which is ongoing and lowering the cost of production,


access to


The center of the global economy has clearly shifted, and the rise of nationalism, Brexit in the west and the rise of illiberalism in the east threatens to leave Europe weak and divided in an era of large states


cheap


capital, which speaks to the depth and breadth of US capital markets, and a certain attitude toward the environment that is not universally shared even in the US, where New York State, for example,


10 FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2019


in the ground), the drop in prices poses fresh new risks. If the debt servicing acts as a fixed cost, some producers will find it in their interest to produce even at a loss. At the same time, the broader economic


lift from that sector, such as capital investment, durable The dramatic drop in equities in


cu s t o me rs . These waivers will expire at the end of Q1 19, raising the specter of u n c e r t a i n t y. The unilateral pull-out of US forces in Syria, which appeared to trigger the resignation of


US Defense Secretary General Mattis, will have consequences that will likely to become clearer in coming months, but the risk is the fragile, delicate balance will shiſt in favor of Russia, Turkey, and Iran.


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