FX CURRENCY WATCH
neutral/bearish and commence a decline to retest 1088 over the subsequent four months) or a monthly close above 1356 (commencing the rally to only 1525) would alter the neutral/ bullish medium-term outlook into the middle of 2020.
OIL OIL BITCOIN/USD
of the few correlations between asset classes that remains mostly intact during this disjointed global period in the markets. Our long-term bearish outlook for Gold since May 2012 culminated with the decline to the 1044.55 ongoing long-term objective for Gold in December 2015.
After the forecast rally from 1238 to the 1374 March 2018 objective left medium-term techs eroding in neutral, we have completed the forecast
22 FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2019
decline to retest 1261 for August 2018. We continue to forecast a very gradual rally to retest 1352 through February 2019, still within a broad, medium-term consolidation [1167 – 1355] through March 2019. We continue to stress that this consolidation is the final formation of the long-term bottom for Gold for a relatively shallow rally to 1525 into January 2020. Only a monthly close back below 1167 (nudging medium- term momentum back to
After the rally from 42.35 through the 69.20 medium- term objective for April 2018 to 72.85 produced weak complex long-term divergences and left neutral/bullish medium- term momentum waning back to neutral, the strong decline through the 58.10 medium- term corrective objective for December 2018 to retest 42.35 also produced weak complex medium-term divergences but also neutral/bearish medium- term momentum. We are forecasting only a weak retest of 64.40 into March 2019 within a broad, neutral medium-term outlook into the third quarter of 2019 [42.05 – 64.40]. Only a monthly close back below 42.05 (resulting in a decline to 34.70 over three months) or a monthly close back above 64.25 (resulting in a rally to retest 75.25 over three months) would alter the lower, neutral, medium-term outlook for the next six months. The impact of the price of Crude Oil on other assets has varied and
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