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FX CURRENCY WATCH


– 1.4225] into May 2019. We are


forecasting a


subsequent


rally to 1.4565 through January 2020 in a resulting higher subsequent long-term outlook [1.3660 – 1.5025] through May 2020. Only a monthly close back below 1.2480 (yielding 1.1985 weak long-term support over two months) or a monthly close back above 1.3660 (resulting in a rally to 1.4770 strong long-term resistance over four months) would alter our broad, neutral/ bullish medium-term outlook through May 2020.


NOTE: EUR/GBP – Decline to .8660 shy of the .8620 medium- term objective for November 2018; now choppy [.8725 - .9100] through March 2019.


USD/JPY


After the rally from the very divergent 104.55 low in March 2018 to the 111.40 July 2018 objective alleviated the medium- term divergences,


the further


rally and failure at the 113.40 critical monthly close produced strong complex medium-term divergences. We


continue to


forecast the subsequent gradual decline to retest 104.30, out to February 2019 from January 2019, still within the broad, choppy medium-term consolidation [ 104.30 – 113.40]


20 FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2019 USD/CHF


through May 2019. Only a monthly close still below 104.30 (reigniting bearish medium- term momentum and resulting in a decline to retest 100.20 over two months) or a monthly close still above 113.40 (resulting in a strong retest of 118.60 over three months) would alter the mixed, neutral/bearish medium- term outlook.


NOTE: Decline shy of 124.10 forecast for September 2018.


We are now forecasting a retest of 137.50 through March 2019 in a subsequently higher, broad outlook [127.55 – 141.20] into the third quarter of 2019.


USD/CHF


I am sorry to again state one of my strongest beliefs about the currency market; that the Swiss Franc remains the bellwether, proactive currency. Indicative of the forecast waning bullish


USD/JPY


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