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FX CURRENCY WATCH by Keith Raphael


Dollar Top Complete


Medium-term Consolidations Ended; First Leg of Dollar decline through 2019


As discussed in the last five quarterly FX Trader Magazines, the U.S. Dollar has moved from the ongoing forecast seven-year bull market to a top building pattern of various types depending on the currency as well as depending on the other assets. The sideways consolidation, in the Euro/Dollar in particular, through midyear 2017, reverted the Dollar to neutral. In addition, the neutral status was accompanied by the


18 FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2019


classic currency and commodity asset rotation throughout their individual, unique consolidations, further clouding the underlying trends and correlations.


In this article, we will remain focused on the long-term outlook in these assets, identify extended consolidations in currencies and commodities, and refine the timing of the exit from bottom building in most


currencies against the U.S. Dollar. We continue to believe that the U.S. Dollar is the lead indicator for all [non-equities] asset classes, and that the low volatility for most currencies in consolidation forecast for 2018 will now end.


Lastly, we will continue to forecast Bitcoin, added to the mix of our medium-term technical forecasting despite its shortcomings.


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