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CURRENCY WATCH EUR/USD


As stated in the last three years of articles for FX Trader Magazine, our long-term forecast continued to stress the top in the EUR/USD since 2009 [at 1.4740], as well as the forecast subsequent declines to 1.1555 for March 2014, and 1.0460 for October 2016 in the ongoing seven-year Dollar Bull Market Forecast. By rallying from


the low to complete the monthly close back above 1.1305 in June 2017, we crossed our “line in the sand” and terminated the Dollar Bull Market.


We have completed the forecast decline to retest 1.1445 [just above the original breakout] for September 2018, and continue to forecast the retest of 1.2040, out


to February 2019 from


FX


December 2018, still in the lower, choppy, consolidation [1.1305 – 1.2165] through March 2019. We are forecasting a subsequent rally through 1.2090 to retest 1.2555 through June 2019, on route to 1.3190 through January 2020 in the first leg of the U.S. Dollar bear market through midyear 2020. Only a monthly close in EUR/USD above 1.2555 (resulting in a new leg up to 1.3990 strong long-term resistance over six months) or still a monthly close back below 1.1305 (eroding medium-term techs within neutral and yielding a decline to retest 1.0815 strong medium-term support over two months) would alter our more neutral/bullish medium-term outlook from neutral outlook for EUR/USD for the two years.


GBP/USD EUR/USD


When our bearish forecast for GBP/USD was completed with the decline from 1.5005 to the 1.3655 long-term objective in June 2016, the further deep and


brief decline to 1.1950 GBP/USD


developed the strongest complex medium-term divergences in a year, and a resulting rally to 1.4370 shy of 1.4565 in April 2018. We are now forecasting a rally from the 1.2480 December low to 1.3890 through February 2019, still within a volatile, medium-term outlook [1.2445


FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2019 19


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