MPs voting on any proposed English-only legislation) becomes law.
A federal solution in light of today’s fluid set of changing relationships between Edinburgh and London could certainly provide a formidable and possibly an insurmountable roadblock in front of the independence bandwagon. Yet recent talk of a federal solution remains just that: talk.
A federal setlement immediately comes up against the problem of the grossly imbalanced demography of the UK, with England having 85% of the total population, and litle interest in the English regions in regional assemblies. A state which has struggled unsuccessfully for many years to modernise the House of Lords is hardly likely to be willing to see through a root-and-branch reform of the British constitution and political system.
Then there is the promised plebiscite over whether or not to remain in Europe which has to be held by 2017. If England votes to leave and the Scots to stay, the SNP has indicated that this will
lead to another referendum on Scotish independence. However, in 2015, the result of that European vote is too close to call. The polls suggest the vote for exit is not quite as strong as it was some time ago in England. Significantly UKIP, the chief promoter of a British exit, only managed to win one seat at the May election.
Yet, all the above does not necessarily mean that another Scotish independence referendum is inevitable before the end of the current UK parliament in 2020. This year could indeed represent the high watermark of nationalist popularity. The SNP’s new MPs face a government with a clear though small majority. Will they, “the 56”, have any more chance of changing or influencing Tory policies than their Labour predecessors of the 1980s whom the nationalists themselves memorably vilified as “the feeble fiſty”?
Te extraordinary electoral destruction of Scottish Labour in the UK election, leaving the formerly dominant people’s party with one solitary seat north of the border, was bound to trigger even more searching questions about the immediate constitutional future of Scotland.
Nicola Sturgeon will be more aware than most that a second referendum will be a zero sum game. If there is one and the vote is lost again the cause of independence would be sidelined for many years to come and might indeed never surface again for the foreseeable future.
An entrenched opinion poll majority for Yes of at least 60:40, or more, might be an essential precondition for trying once more. That could be very difficult to achieve in the short run as the current popularity of the SNP is not based on a commitment to independence by all of those who voted for the party in May.
Then there is the realisation of The Vow or what might now be termed The Vow Plus. David Cameron performed a brazen volte face in his first speech
56
June 2015
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68 |
Page 69 |
Page 70 |
Page 71 |
Page 72 |
Page 73 |
Page 74 |
Page 75 |
Page 76 |
Page 77 |
Page 78 |
Page 79 |
Page 80 |
Page 81 |
Page 82 |
Page 83 |
Page 84 |
Page 85 |
Page 86 |
Page 87 |
Page 88 |
Page 89 |
Page 90 |
Page 91 |
Page 92 |
Page 93 |
Page 94 |
Page 95 |
Page 96 |
Page 97 |
Page 98 |
Page 99 |
Page 100