Happy New Year (maybe…) Sheila Manchester asked I
am (honestly) far too young to have remembered the beginning, or indeed the end, of the Second World War, but from what I have heard, most people
were positive about the outcome – and their future – at least for some, if not all, of the time. We don’t seem to have hit the streets and
lit fireworks to celebrate the end of any of the many wars since, but every year, we Brits happily join our friends across the world on New Year’s Eve to celebrate the end of the old year and express our hopes and dreams for the new one. Will we manage to do so this year?
Possibly not. With the ongoing global crisis the champagne sales may be down and all those smart hotels and restaurants seem to have, as we go to press, tables still available for the big night. But what about business? What,
particularly, about the property business? Any cause for celebration? Is it all gloom and doom in the heads of property researchers, agents, commentators and statisticians? It depends, as usual, on what you read and whom you choose to believe. Here are some of the most interesting – and positive – comments.
10 JANUARY 2012 PROPERTYdrum
Robin King, Director, Move with Us
2012 will be a tale of the haves and have-nots. Those that are able to, will continue to de-leverage using lower interest rates
to increase the rate of pay down on their mortgages. Those in arrears will continue in arrears as they see the value of their asset eroding whilst struggling with higher living costs. We do not expect to see lenders pressing for foreclosure until they see an end to this housing market recession. At the moment, five per cent of mortgages are showing significant arrears in the UK. Generally, the housing market will
remain flat with low levels of supply on the market as families choose to reduce their mortgages rather than move. Most demand for housing will be in the PRS due to the lack of higher LTV mortgages and the threat of unemployment. We expect around 700,000 private treaty
residential transactions next year, slightly lower than 2011.
readers for their market predictions for the coming year. However, it won’t be all doom and gloom,
there will be hot spots around the country where economic activity has remained strong and where new infrastructure improvements open an area up to commuters in strong economic zones.
Miles Shipside, Commercial Director, Rightmove
Although the majority view at a national level is that the UK housing market will avoid
price falls in 2012, local variations highlight how patchy confidence can be, depending on an area’s housing mix and wealth demographics. The wealthier middle-to- upper price brackets may be feeling fairly blast-proof from any further economic eruptions, and see a less turbulent outlook. Meanwhile some of the more cash- strapped terrace and semi dwellers may feel far more exposed to the negative pressures of reduced mortgage availability and job uncertainty.
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