2 CHAPTER 1


on these works quite extensively, and sometimes revisit and revise them empirically. However, in addition to reviewing and revising this evidence, we regularly augment it where necessary (and feasible) with fresh research. Indeed, the present research provides several important new pieces of evi- dence on both the causes and consequences of the crisis. A second group of papers inadequately addresses some specific questions on the consequences of the crisis. Although often technically adept, this body of research is of limited use for a robust assessment of the likely impacts of the crisis. Several papers follow Ivanic and Martin (2008) in using micro- economic data to simulate the impacts of rising food prices on household poverty. Other papers in this group look at macroeconomic effects, such as the strength of transmission from international to domestic prices (Dawe 2008) or the impact of rising food prices on import bills (IMF 2008a). Ideally, a full assessment of the short-term impacts of the crisis on poverty requires consideration of both macroeconomic impacts and transmissions, as well as household and intrahousehold effects, for both food and fuel price increases. Some country studies admirably adopt a more comprehensive line (Arndt et al. 2008; Cudjoe, Breisinger, and Diao 2008), but cross-country analyses of this kind are notably absent. To partially bridge this gap, we collect and ana- lyze a new and impressively large Global Information and Early Warning Sys- tem (GIEWS 2009) dataset on food prices in developing countries. Such data can be used to broadly infer where consumers have been severely effected, although the impacts on farmers remain unclear.


A final objective of this monograph is to look beyond the events of the past few years. We show that the current crisis bears some remarkable similarities to—as well as some equally important differences from—the first food crisis of 1974 (Headey and Raszap Skorbiansky 2008). The similarities between the two crises lend credence to the hypothesis that the causes of these crises relate to some deeper failings of the global food system. In Chap- ter 4 we compare the two crises and consider this hypothesis. As we discuss in the concluding chapter (Chapter 5), some of these failings were addressed after the 1972–74 crisis, but with only limited success, and some were not addressed at all. Particularly important is the large regional imbalance in cereal production. Africa’s poor track record in agricultural pro- duction may not have been a significant cause of the crisis, but it undoubt- edly makes the region highly vulnerable to the vagaries of international mar- kets. Reversing a long-term decline in agricultural investment in Africa and other lagging regions is an immense and difficult step but almost certainly a necessary one. The good news is that donor commitments to agricultural development were indeed scaled up drastically in 2008. The concern is that


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