LESSONS FOR THE FUTURE 99


Addressing the Regional Imbalance in Food Production In contrast to those who list declining agricultural productivity of major cereals as a significant threat to global food production, we argue that it is the longer term regional imbalance in cereal production that is the most significant problem facing global food security. Essentially, large parts of the developing world, especially Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, are heavily dependent on cereal imports from the rest of the world, especially Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Europe, North America, and a few Asian rice exporters. This imbalance emerged before the 1972–74 crisis, but Africa’s rapid population growth combined with its weak growth in food production have made the imbalance starker. Of course, insufficient production growth may not be a problem if net cereal importers have adequate access to foreign exchange, but with the exception of mineral exporters, net cereal import- ers often rely heavily on foreign aid for bolstering their exchange reserves or directly accessing food aid. And although this problem existed before and after the two world food crises, both events were exacerbated by this exces- sive reliance on cereal imports.


Yet addressing this issue is arguably more important than ever, especially in the face of longer term threats to food production (such as climate change and resource degradation) and changes in international trade in cereals (for example, the growth in biofuels). However, it is also clear that the solutions to this imbalance need to be country specific and that not every country in the world need be, or could be, totally self-sufficient in food production. Thus the question is essentially how to properly balance domestic food pro- duction and reliance on imports. In many food-deficit countries the binding constraint is that food production is currently vastly lower than its potential because of a history of distortionary policies and inadequate or inappropriate investments in agricultural R&D, extension, and rural infrastructure (Bezemer and Headey 2008). In some of these countries, agriculture has traditionally been underemphasized in national development strategies because of ambi- tious industrialization goals or easy access to mineral earnings. However, even in countries with considerable nonfarm growth potential (such as Cameroon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ghana, and Nigeria), the equally impressive potential of agriculture means that such countries can play a vital role in improving food security both domestically and regionally. In contrast, many landlocked African countries lack nonagricultural prospects but also suffer from severe and worsening agroclimatic constraints (particu- larly the Sahelian countries). Thus, unfortunately, they will never be regional breadbaskets. So although raising food production might still be important in these more agriculturally challenged and food-insecure countries, supporting agricultural production growth in areas of real biophysical potential is prob-


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