LEARNING FROM THE PAST 83
Figure 4.1 Timeline of events for the 1972–74 food crisis Average price of rice, wheat, and cereals (current U.S. dollars)
350
1973–74: OPEC nations quadruple price of petroleum.
300 250 200 150 100 50 0
1971: U.S. dollar is devaluated.
1950s and 1960s: U.S. becomes world's
residual supplier of grains, but U.S. govt. tries to curb overproduction, leading to declining reserves in 1960s.
1973–74: U.S. food aid program shrinks to all-time low.
1972–74: Poor harvests in U.S., USSR, Canada, Australia, Peru, and much of Asia.
June 1971: Nixon
liberalizes grain exports to China and Eastern Europe.
1974–75: Rich nations implicitly restrict fertilizer exports.
Jul 1972: Russia purchases half of U.S. grain surplus, or one- quarter of 1972's grain output.
1973: U.S. agricultural policies slow to adjust to increasing grain prices.
Oct 1976: USSR and U.S. sign new
bilateral agreement on grain exports.
1974–84: World food production increases, but highly unevenly: Asia's Green Revolution is
successful in increasing food security, but Africa is heavily hit by drought and famine. Africa becomes
increasingly dependent on cereal imports and food aid.
Nov 1974: World Food Conference is held in Rome. Rich nations commit to 19 new food secuirty measures and increased foreign aid.
1974–84: Aid commitments to agricultural development increase substantially, including food aid. New institutions are built for agricultural R&D and increased monitoring of food security.
1974: Green Revolution farmers suffer heavy losses from high fertilizer prices.
Source: Constructed by the authors. Notes: Qn indicates the nth quarter for the year. OPEC, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries; R&D, research and development.
Q1 1965 Q3 1965 Q1 1966 Q3 1966 Q1 1967 Q3 1967 Q1 1968 Q3 1968 Q1 1969 Q3 1969 Q1 1970 Q3 1970 Q1 1971 Q3 1971 Q1 1972 Q3 1972 Q1 1973 Q3 1973 Q1 1974 Q3 1974 Q1 1975 Q3 1975 Q1 1976 Q3 1976 Q1 1977 Q3 1977 Q1 1978 Q3 1978 Q1 1979 Q3 1979 Q1 1980 Q3 1980 Q1 1981 Q3 1981 Q1 1982 Q3 1982 Q1 1983 Q3 1983 Q1 1984 Q3 1984 Q1 1985 Q3 1985
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